Official meteorological observations for Ankara on October 5 confirm a daily high of 22°C, driving the market-implied odds to near-certainty on that outcome. This aligns with regional autumn climatology, where typical early-October highs range from 18–24°C under moderate high-pressure influence and limited cloud cover. Surface station data and model analyses show stable conditions without significant warm-air advection or urban heat-island amplification pushing readings higher. Minor uncertainty remains around exact measurement timing, station selection criteria, or post-hoc quality-control adjustments by the Turkish State Meteorological Service, though such revisions rarely alter the recorded maximum by more than 1°C once initial reports are issued.