**The 2026 Berlin state election on September 20 produced a confirmed result placing the AfD at 29 seats.** Pre-election polls throughout September consistently projected the party at 17-18% of the vote, translating via the personalized proportional system (with a 5% threshold) to roughly 27-30 seats in the 130-seat Abgeordnetenhaus. This matched the actual outcome of 16.3% and 29 seats, a gain of 12 from the 17 held after the 2023 repeat election. Trader consensus at 96.8% for the 29-31 band reflects the rapid convergence of exit polls, early counts, and official projections released on election night, leaving little room for variance. Other ranges priced below 2% each because they fall outside the narrow band supported by the data. The result occurred amid broader national trends of AfD gains in eastern states, though all other parties maintained their firewall against cooperation. Remaining uncertainty centers on any final adjustments from outstanding ballots or formal certification, though historical patterns indicate such shifts are typically minimal.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว29-31 96.8%
35+ 1.8%
23-25 <1%
20-22 <1%
$99,866 ปริมาณ
$99,866 ปริมาณ
Sep 20, 2026
<20
<1%
20-22
1%
23-25
1%
26-28
<1%
29-31
97%
32-34
1%
35+
2%
29-31 96.8%
35+ 1.8%
23-25 <1%
20-22 <1%
$99,866 ปริมาณ
$99,866 ปริมาณ
Sep 20, 2026
<20
$4,678 ปริมาณ
<1%
20-22
$8,820 ปริมาณ
1%
23-25
$5,579 ปริมาณ
1%
26-28
$17,040 ปริมาณ
<1%
29-31
$9,219 ปริมาณ
97%
32-34
$16,100 ปริมาณ
1%
35+
$38,430 ปริมาณ
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**The 2026 Berlin state election on September 20 produced a confirmed result placing the AfD at 29 seats.** Pre-election polls throughout September consistently projected the party at 17-18% of the vote, translating via the personalized proportional system (with a 5% threshold) to roughly 27-30 seats in the 130-seat Abgeordnetenhaus. This matched the actual outcome of 16.3% and 29 seats, a gain of 12 from the 17 held after the 2023 repeat election.
Trader consensus at 96.8% for the 29-31 band reflects the rapid convergence of exit polls, early counts, and official projections released on election night, leaving little room for variance. Other ranges priced below 2% each because they fall outside the narrow band supported by the data.
The result occurred amid broader national trends of AfD gains in eastern states, though all other parties maintained their firewall against cooperation. Remaining uncertainty centers on any final adjustments from outstanding ballots or formal certification, though historical patterns indicate such shifts are typically minimal.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$99,866วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**The 2026 Berlin state election on September 20 produced a confirmed result placing the AfD at 29 seats.** Pre-election polls throughout September consistently projected the party at 17-18% of the vote, translating via the personalized proportional system (with a 5% threshold) to roughly 27-30 seats in the 130-seat Abgeordnetenhaus. This matched the actual outcome of 16.3% and 29 seats, a gain of 12 from the 17 held after the 2023 repeat election.
Trader consensus at 96.8% for the 29-31 band reflects the rapid convergence of exit polls, early counts, and official projections released on election night, leaving little room for variance. Other ranges priced below 2% each because they fall outside the narrow band supported by the data.
The result occurred amid broader national trends of AfD gains in eastern states, though all other parties maintained their firewall against cooperation. Remaining uncertainty centers on any final adjustments from outstanding ballots or formal certification, though historical patterns indicate such shifts are typically minimal.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$99,866วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**The 2026 Berlin state election on September 20 produced a confirmed result placing the AfD at 29 seats.** Pre-election polls throughout September consistently projected the party at 17-18% of the vote, translating via the personalized proportional system (with a 5% threshold) to roughly 27-30 seats in the 130-seat Abgeordnetenhaus. This matched the actual outcome of 16.3% and 29 seats, a gain of 12 from the 17 held after the 2023 repeat election. Trader consensus at 96.8% for the 29-31 band reflects the rapid convergence of exit polls, early counts, and official projections released on election night, leaving little room for variance. Other ranges priced below 2% each because they fall outside the narrow band supported by the data. The result occurred amid broader national trends of AfD gains in eastern states, though all other parties maintained their firewall against cooperation. Remaining uncertainty centers on any final adjustments from outstanding ballots or formal certification, though historical patterns indicate such shifts are typically minimal.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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