Recent heavy September rainfall across much of the western and central Corn Belt, driven by El Niño-enhanced tropical moisture, has sharply reduced drought coverage for U.S. corn, with the latest U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought data showing 19–21% of production in drought-affected areas as of late September. This aligns with the market’s strong 83.5% implied probability for 15–24% during the week of October 13. Lingering severe drought persists in portions of the southern Plains and isolated Midwest spots, while widespread improvements appear in the U.S. Drought Monitor for early October. Traders are watching the next official update and any further precipitation or drying trends that could shift the percentage outside this narrow band.