The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), a blended-finance vehicle launched at COP30 to deliver performance-based payments to tropical forest countries maintaining deforestation below 0.5% annually via satellite monitoring, stands at roughly $7.3 billion in sponsor pledges against the $10 billion threshold required by year-end 2026 to unlock Norway’s $3 billion commitment and operationalize the fund. Recent developments, including the UK’s September pledge of approximately $540 million and incremental European contributions, have narrowed the gap modestly, yet global geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, and domestic budget constraints in key donor nations have slowed additional commitments. With only months remaining and historical fundraising momentum insufficient to close the remaining distance amid multilateral uncertainties, trader consensus assigns a 74% implied probability to missing the target. New pledge announcements or model refinements ahead of COP31 could still shift the outlook.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
23% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
15 янв. 2027 г.
Да
23% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
15 янв. 2027 г.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if total sponsor capital committed to the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) is greater than or equal to $10,000,000,000 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution value is the "Pledged capital" figure displayed on the Sponsor Capital gauge at the top of the tracker. If the tracker separately displays an "Invested capital" figure not already included in the pledged figure, the two are summed, with no contributor's capital counted more than once.
This market will remain open until January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to accommodate a lag in reporting. Only commitments made on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will count. From January 1, 2027 through January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the resolution value is the gauge figure less any contributor amount whose commitment is attributed, by the tracker or by the contributor's own announcement, to a date after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A commitment's date is the date of the contributor's public announcement of the pledge, not the date the tracker first reflects it. Revisions published after January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the TFFF Watch Investment Tracker at https://tfffwatch.org/investment-tracker. If the TFFF Watch Investment Tracker becomes permanently unavailable or stops publishing these totals, this market will resolve based on official TFFF announcements at https://tfff.earth and a consensus of credible reporting, applying the same standard of sponsor capital formally pledged or paid in.The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), a blended-finance vehicle launched at COP30 to deliver performance-based payments to tropical forest countries maintaining deforestation below 0.5% annually via satellite monitoring, stands at roughly $7.3 billion in sponsor pledges against the $10 billion threshold required by year-end 2026 to unlock Norway’s $3 billion commitment and operationalize the fund. Recent developments, including the UK’s September pledge of approximately $540 million and incremental European contributions, have narrowed the gap modestly, yet global geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, and domestic budget constraints in key donor nations have slowed additional commitments. With only months remaining and historical fundraising momentum insufficient to close the remaining distance amid multilateral uncertainties, trader consensus assigns a 74% implied probability to missing the target. New pledge announcements or model refinements ahead of COP31 could still shift the outlook.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if total sponsor capital committed to the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) is greater than or equal to $10,000,000,000 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution value is the "Pledged capital" figure displayed on the Sponsor Capital gauge at the top of the tracker. If the tracker separately displays an "Invested capital" figure not already included in the pledged figure, the two are summed, with no contributor's capital counted more than once.
This market will remain open until January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to accommodate a lag in reporting. Only commitments made on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will count. From January 1, 2027 through January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the resolution value is the gauge figure less any contributor amount whose commitment is attributed, by the tracker or by the contributor's own announcement, to a date after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A commitment's date is the date of the contributor's public announcement of the pledge, not the date the tracker first reflects it. Revisions published after January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the TFFF Watch Investment Tracker at https://tfffwatch.org/investment-tracker. If the TFFF Watch Investment Tracker becomes permanently unavailable or stops publishing these totals, this market will resolve based on official TFFF announcements at https://tfff.earth and a consensus of credible reporting, applying the same standard of sponsor capital formally pledged or paid in.
The resolution value is the "Pledged capital" figure displayed on the Sponsor Capital gauge at the top of the tracker. If the tracker separately displays an "Invested capital" figure not already included in the pledged figure, the two are summed, with no contributor's capital counted more than once.
This market will remain open until January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to accommodate a lag in reporting. Only commitments made on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will count. From January 1, 2027 through January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the resolution value is the gauge figure less any contributor amount whose commitment is attributed, by the tracker or by the contributor's own announcement, to a date after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A commitment's date is the date of the contributor's public announcement of the pledge, not the date the tracker first reflects it. Revisions published after January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the TFFF Watch Investment Tracker at https://tfffwatch.org/investment-tracker. If the TFFF Watch Investment Tracker becomes permanently unavailable or stops publishing these totals, this market will resolve based on official TFFF announcements at https://tfff.earth and a consensus of credible reporting, applying the same standard of sponsor capital formally pledged or paid in.
Открытие рынка: Sep 9, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Объем
$551Дата окончания
16 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 9, 2026, 5:26 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://tfffwatch.org/investment-trackerКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if total sponsor capital committed to the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) is greater than or equal to $10,000,000,000 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution value is the "Pledged capital" figure displayed on the Sponsor Capital gauge at the top of the tracker. If the tracker separately displays an "Invested capital" figure not already included in the pledged figure, the two are summed, with no contributor's capital counted more than once.
This market will remain open until January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to accommodate a lag in reporting. Only commitments made on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will count. From January 1, 2027 through January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the resolution value is the gauge figure less any contributor amount whose commitment is attributed, by the tracker or by the contributor's own announcement, to a date after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A commitment's date is the date of the contributor's public announcement of the pledge, not the date the tracker first reflects it. Revisions published after January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the TFFF Watch Investment Tracker at https://tfffwatch.org/investment-tracker. If the TFFF Watch Investment Tracker becomes permanently unavailable or stops publishing these totals, this market will resolve based on official TFFF announcements at https://tfff.earth and a consensus of credible reporting, applying the same standard of sponsor capital formally pledged or paid in.The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), a blended-finance vehicle launched at COP30 to deliver performance-based payments to tropical forest countries maintaining deforestation below 0.5% annually via satellite monitoring, stands at roughly $7.3 billion in sponsor pledges against the $10 billion threshold required by year-end 2026 to unlock Norway’s $3 billion commitment and operationalize the fund. Recent developments, including the UK’s September pledge of approximately $540 million and incremental European contributions, have narrowed the gap modestly, yet global geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, and domestic budget constraints in key donor nations have slowed additional commitments. With only months remaining and historical fundraising momentum insufficient to close the remaining distance amid multilateral uncertainties, trader consensus assigns a 74% implied probability to missing the target. New pledge announcements or model refinements ahead of COP31 could still shift the outlook.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if total sponsor capital committed to the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) is greater than or equal to $10,000,000,000 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution value is the "Pledged capital" figure displayed on the Sponsor Capital gauge at the top of the tracker. If the tracker separately displays an "Invested capital" figure not already included in the pledged figure, the two are summed, with no contributor's capital counted more than once.
This market will remain open until January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to accommodate a lag in reporting. Only commitments made on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will count. From January 1, 2027 through January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the resolution value is the gauge figure less any contributor amount whose commitment is attributed, by the tracker or by the contributor's own announcement, to a date after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A commitment's date is the date of the contributor's public announcement of the pledge, not the date the tracker first reflects it. Revisions published after January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the TFFF Watch Investment Tracker at https://tfffwatch.org/investment-tracker. If the TFFF Watch Investment Tracker becomes permanently unavailable or stops publishing these totals, this market will resolve based on official TFFF announcements at https://tfff.earth and a consensus of credible reporting, applying the same standard of sponsor capital formally pledged or paid in.
The resolution value is the "Pledged capital" figure displayed on the Sponsor Capital gauge at the top of the tracker. If the tracker separately displays an "Invested capital" figure not already included in the pledged figure, the two are summed, with no contributor's capital counted more than once.
This market will remain open until January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to accommodate a lag in reporting. Only commitments made on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will count. From January 1, 2027 through January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the resolution value is the gauge figure less any contributor amount whose commitment is attributed, by the tracker or by the contributor's own announcement, to a date after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A commitment's date is the date of the contributor's public announcement of the pledge, not the date the tracker first reflects it. Revisions published after January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the TFFF Watch Investment Tracker at https://tfffwatch.org/investment-tracker. If the TFFF Watch Investment Tracker becomes permanently unavailable or stops publishing these totals, this market will resolve based on official TFFF announcements at https://tfff.earth and a consensus of credible reporting, applying the same standard of sponsor capital formally pledged or paid in.
Объем
$551Дата окончания
16 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 9, 2026, 5:26 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://tfffwatch.org/investment-trackerКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), a blended-finance vehicle launched at COP30 to deliver performance-based payments to tropical forest countries maintaining deforestation below 0.5% annually via satellite monitoring, stands at roughly $7.3 billion in sponsor pledges against the $10 billion threshold required by year-end 2026 to unlock Norway’s $3 billion commitment and operationalize the fund. Recent developments, including the UK’s September pledge of approximately $540 million and incremental European contributions, have narrowed the gap modestly, yet global geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, and domestic budget constraints in key donor nations have slowed additional commitments. With only months remaining and historical fundraising momentum insufficient to close the remaining distance amid multilateral uncertainties, trader consensus assigns a 74% implied probability to missing the target. New pledge announcements or model refinements ahead of COP31 could still shift the outlook.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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