Macron’s second term concludes in May 2027, leaving limited time and political bandwidth for new initiatives before year-end amid a fragmented National Assembly and the approaching presidential campaign season that begins after March municipal elections. Past presidential references to Article 11 referendums on institutional or policy matters have repeatedly failed to advance, with no announced timetable or acute legislative deadlock currently requiring direct voter consultation. Trader consensus reflected in the 97 percent probability of no referendum by December 31 therefore rests on the lack of any imminent trigger and the president’s focus on other priorities such as European-level regulatory proposals. Late developments that could still shift odds include an unforeseen constitutional standoff or major policy impasse prompting an Article 11 decree published in the Journal officiel before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
3% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
3% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Macron’s second term concludes in May 2027, leaving limited time and political bandwidth for new initiatives before year-end amid a fragmented National Assembly and the approaching presidential campaign season that begins after March municipal elections. Past presidential references to Article 11 referendums on institutional or policy matters have repeatedly failed to advance, with no announced timetable or acute legislative deadlock currently requiring direct voter consultation. Trader consensus reflected in the 97 percent probability of no referendum by December 31 therefore rests on the lack of any imminent trigger and the president’s focus on other priorities such as European-level regulatory proposals. Late developments that could still shift odds include an unforeseen constitutional standoff or major policy impasse prompting an Article 11 decree published in the Journal officiel before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Объем
$78Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Macron’s second term concludes in May 2027, leaving limited time and political bandwidth for new initiatives before year-end amid a fragmented National Assembly and the approaching presidential campaign season that begins after March municipal elections. Past presidential references to Article 11 referendums on institutional or policy matters have repeatedly failed to advance, with no announced timetable or acute legislative deadlock currently requiring direct voter consultation. Trader consensus reflected in the 97 percent probability of no referendum by December 31 therefore rests on the lack of any imminent trigger and the president’s focus on other priorities such as European-level regulatory proposals. Late developments that could still shift odds include an unforeseen constitutional standoff or major policy impasse prompting an Article 11 decree published in the Journal officiel before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$78Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Macron’s second term concludes in May 2027, leaving limited time and political bandwidth for new initiatives before year-end amid a fragmented National Assembly and the approaching presidential campaign season that begins after March municipal elections. Past presidential references to Article 11 referendums on institutional or policy matters have repeatedly failed to advance, with no announced timetable or acute legislative deadlock currently requiring direct voter consultation. Trader consensus reflected in the 97 percent probability of no referendum by December 31 therefore rests on the lack of any imminent trigger and the president’s focus on other priorities such as European-level regulatory proposals. Late developments that could still shift odds include an unforeseen constitutional standoff or major policy impasse prompting an Article 11 decree published in the Journal officiel before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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