Recent bilateral consultations between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, along with preparations for a Trump-Xi summit, have advanced reciprocal tariff reduction talks on roughly $30 billion in goods per side through the newly established Board of Trade mechanism. These efforts build on the May 2026 Beijing summit consensus and the Kuala Lumpur arrangement suspending certain tariffs and countermeasures until November 10, 2026, while addressing agricultural purchases, critical minerals, and non-strategic market access. The active negotiation timeline, combined with commitments to cap replacement tariffs and pursue further cuts, underpins trader consensus reflected in the elevated Yes odds, though outcomes remain subject to diplomatic progress or late shifts in priorities before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено91% вероятность
$256,895 Объем
$256,895 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
91% вероятность
$256,895 Объем
$256,895 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent bilateral consultations between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, along with preparations for a Trump-Xi summit, have advanced reciprocal tariff reduction talks on roughly $30 billion in goods per side through the newly established Board of Trade mechanism. These efforts build on the May 2026 Beijing summit consensus and the Kuala Lumpur arrangement suspending certain tariffs and countermeasures until November 10, 2026, while addressing agricultural purchases, critical minerals, and non-strategic market access. The active negotiation timeline, combined with commitments to cap replacement tariffs and pursue further cuts, underpins trader consensus reflected in the elevated Yes odds, though outcomes remain subject to diplomatic progress or late shifts in priorities before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Открытие рынка: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Объем
$256,895Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent bilateral consultations between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, along with preparations for a Trump-Xi summit, have advanced reciprocal tariff reduction talks on roughly $30 billion in goods per side through the newly established Board of Trade mechanism. These efforts build on the May 2026 Beijing summit consensus and the Kuala Lumpur arrangement suspending certain tariffs and countermeasures until November 10, 2026, while addressing agricultural purchases, critical minerals, and non-strategic market access. The active negotiation timeline, combined with commitments to cap replacement tariffs and pursue further cuts, underpins trader consensus reflected in the elevated Yes odds, though outcomes remain subject to diplomatic progress or late shifts in priorities before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Объем
$256,895Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent bilateral consultations between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, along with preparations for a Trump-Xi summit, have advanced reciprocal tariff reduction talks on roughly $30 billion in goods per side through the newly established Board of Trade mechanism. These efforts build on the May 2026 Beijing summit consensus and the Kuala Lumpur arrangement suspending certain tariffs and countermeasures until November 10, 2026, while addressing agricultural purchases, critical minerals, and non-strategic market access. The active negotiation timeline, combined with commitments to cap replacement tariffs and pursue further cuts, underpins trader consensus reflected in the elevated Yes odds, though outcomes remain subject to diplomatic progress or late shifts in priorities before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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