Recent diplomatic agreements and U.S. policy choices have sustained the ceasefire. On October 15–16, 2026, President Trump extended the truce indefinitely and finalized a 60-day deal tied to Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, and deferred nuclear talks, following earlier pauses announced in April and June. These steps followed a memorandum of understanding and Pakistani-mediated negotiations that halted offensive operations. Traders assign 77.5% probability to continuation through the November 3 midterms because the administration has explicitly paused strikes ahead of the vote amid domestic concerns over energy prices and inflation, while both sides prioritize reopening shipping lanes and avoiding renewed escalation during the narrow pre-election window. Remaining risks include compliance disputes or external triggers that could alter the current trajectory.