Swiss voters will decide four measures on November 29, 2026: a mandatory federal decree raising VAT to fund an additional AVS/AHV pension payment, a popular initiative restricting fireworks sales and use, another initiative ending the federal tax marriage penalty for couples, and an amendment to the Federal Act on War Material easing export rules to certain partner states even during conflicts. Trader consensus has settled on the war material amendment as the frontrunner, reflecting its connection to ongoing neutrality debates and European security pressures that gained visibility after recent votes on related issues. The VAT decree draws support as a pragmatic fiscal measure for pension sustainability, while the fireworks and marriage taxation initiatives face narrower appeal and higher hurdles for double-majority approval where required. No major new polling has shifted positioning in the weeks since the June population cap rejection and ahead of the September 27 neutrality and food initiatives, leaving party alignments and campaign momentum as the main variables before the vote.