Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid through September 29, 2026, indicate 1.3% of the contiguous United States in exceptional (D4) drought, concentrated in central and eastern Texas and Oklahoma where prolonged above-normal temperatures and minimal rainfall since midsummer have intensified conditions. The National Drought Mitigation Center and NOAA note rapid degradation in the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, with some localized improvement from Pacific tropical moisture. NOAA’s October 2026 climate outlook favors precipitation increases that could ease D4 in parts of the southern Plains and Southeast, though model uncertainty remains around timing and totals. The next USDM update, released midweek, will incorporate soil moisture, streamflow, and precipitation observations through early October to determine state-level D4 presence.