SpaceX (SPCX) closed at $158.96 on October 2 after a 7.35% rally on record volume, fueled by three Starship launches in 13 hours and TD Cowen’s initiation of coverage with a $200 target tied to projected $14.4 billion in 2026 AI compute leasing revenue. Trader-implied odds remain tightly clustered across the $150–$170 bands because the stock’s elevated valuation—roughly 95 times trailing sales—faces ongoing scrutiny amid continued operating losses outside Starlink and uncertainty ahead of third-quarter results. Recent analyst consensus targets cluster near $219 while bear cases highlight risks of profit-taking or slower Starlink subscriber growth, leaving near-term direction dependent on launch cadence, AI contract momentum, and broader risk appetite.