Google's roughly $4 trillion public market capitalization currently exceeds the combined private valuations of OpenAI (~$852 billion post-March 2026 round) and Anthropic (~$965 billion post-May Series H) by a wide margin, underpinning the 78.5% market-implied probability it retains the higher valuation at year-end. Alphabet's diversified revenue base—including search, YouTube, and cloud—delivers stable cash flows and AI-driven growth that contrasts with the two labs' high operating losses and compute-intensive scaling. Recent confidential IPO filings by both startups in June introduce potential re-rating catalysts, yet secondary-market premiums and ambitious targets near or above $1 trillion each face dilution, public scrutiny, and execution risks that limit the likelihood of surpassing Alphabet's scale by December 31. Trader consensus reflects this structural gap amid ongoing AI investment cycles.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOpenAI + Anthropic
22% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 янв. 2027 г.
OpenAI + Anthropic
22% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 янв. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Google's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Google" if Google's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Google's roughly $4 trillion public market capitalization currently exceeds the combined private valuations of OpenAI (~$852 billion post-March 2026 round) and Anthropic (~$965 billion post-May Series H) by a wide margin, underpinning the 78.5% market-implied probability it retains the higher valuation at year-end. Alphabet's diversified revenue base—including search, YouTube, and cloud—delivers stable cash flows and AI-driven growth that contrasts with the two labs' high operating losses and compute-intensive scaling. Recent confidential IPO filings by both startups in June introduce potential re-rating catalysts, yet secondary-market premiums and ambitious targets near or above $1 trillion each face dilution, public scrutiny, and execution risks that limit the likelihood of surpassing Alphabet's scale by December 31. Trader consensus reflects this structural gap amid ongoing AI investment cycles.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Google's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Google" if Google's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Открытие рынка: May 19, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Объем
$7,527Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 19, 2026, 4:27 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Google's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Google" if Google's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Google's roughly $4 trillion public market capitalization currently exceeds the combined private valuations of OpenAI (~$852 billion post-March 2026 round) and Anthropic (~$965 billion post-May Series H) by a wide margin, underpinning the 78.5% market-implied probability it retains the higher valuation at year-end. Alphabet's diversified revenue base—including search, YouTube, and cloud—delivers stable cash flows and AI-driven growth that contrasts with the two labs' high operating losses and compute-intensive scaling. Recent confidential IPO filings by both startups in June introduce potential re-rating catalysts, yet secondary-market premiums and ambitious targets near or above $1 trillion each face dilution, public scrutiny, and execution risks that limit the likelihood of surpassing Alphabet's scale by December 31. Trader consensus reflects this structural gap amid ongoing AI investment cycles.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Google's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Google" if Google's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Объем
$7,527Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 19, 2026, 4:27 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Google's roughly $4 trillion public market capitalization currently exceeds the combined private valuations of OpenAI (~$852 billion post-March 2026 round) and Anthropic (~$965 billion post-May Series H) by a wide margin, underpinning the 78.5% market-implied probability it retains the higher valuation at year-end. Alphabet's diversified revenue base—including search, YouTube, and cloud—delivers stable cash flows and AI-driven growth that contrasts with the two labs' high operating losses and compute-intensive scaling. Recent confidential IPO filings by both startups in June introduce potential re-rating catalysts, yet secondary-market premiums and ambitious targets near or above $1 trillion each face dilution, public scrutiny, and execution risks that limit the likelihood of surpassing Alphabet's scale by December 31. Trader consensus reflects this structural gap amid ongoing AI investment cycles.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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