The absence of any indictments, arrest warrants, or formal charges against former President Obama underpins the 97% trader consensus against an arrest before 2027. Ongoing Department of Justice reviews and grand jury examinations have focused on other Obama-era officials tied to 2016 Russia-related matters, yet none have produced personal criminal proceedings against him as of September 2026. Presidential immunity precedents for official acts, statutes of limitations, and the lack of prosecutable evidence cited in public reporting create significant procedural barriers. Late developments such as new referrals yielding indictments or shifts in enforcement priorities could still alter outcomes within the window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
3% вероятность
$21,920 Объем
$21,920 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
3% вероятность
$21,920 Объем
$21,920 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any indictments, arrest warrants, or formal charges against former President Obama underpins the 97% trader consensus against an arrest before 2027. Ongoing Department of Justice reviews and grand jury examinations have focused on other Obama-era officials tied to 2016 Russia-related matters, yet none have produced personal criminal proceedings against him as of September 2026. Presidential immunity precedents for official acts, statutes of limitations, and the lack of prosecutable evidence cited in public reporting create significant procedural barriers. Late developments such as new referrals yielding indictments or shifts in enforcement priorities could still alter outcomes within the window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Объем
$21,920Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any indictments, arrest warrants, or formal charges against former President Obama underpins the 97% trader consensus against an arrest before 2027. Ongoing Department of Justice reviews and grand jury examinations have focused on other Obama-era officials tied to 2016 Russia-related matters, yet none have produced personal criminal proceedings against him as of September 2026. Presidential immunity precedents for official acts, statutes of limitations, and the lack of prosecutable evidence cited in public reporting create significant procedural barriers. Late developments such as new referrals yielding indictments or shifts in enforcement priorities could still alter outcomes within the window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$21,920Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The absence of any indictments, arrest warrants, or formal charges against former President Obama underpins the 97% trader consensus against an arrest before 2027. Ongoing Department of Justice reviews and grand jury examinations have focused on other Obama-era officials tied to 2016 Russia-related matters, yet none have produced personal criminal proceedings against him as of September 2026. Presidential immunity precedents for official acts, statutes of limitations, and the lack of prosecutable evidence cited in public reporting create significant procedural barriers. Late developments such as new referrals yielding indictments or shifts in enforcement priorities could still alter outcomes within the window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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