Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to his established record, substantial fundraising edge, and the state's Democratic lean, which contributed to his 2020 victory. Republican challenger Larry Marker, an oil and gas operator who advanced only as a write-in after no major-party candidates qualified for the primary ballot, faces structural disadvantages including limited visibility and no significant national party support. A late-August poll showed Luján ahead 53-38 among likely voters, consistent with nonpartisan forecasts rating the contest solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the market pricing aligns with these fundamentals, though late-cycle shifts in national conditions, turnout patterns among key voting blocs, or unforeseen developments could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Сенат Нью-Мексико
Победитель выборов в Сенат Нью-Мексико
$25,948 Объем
$25,948 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Бен Рэй Лухан (Д)
96%
Ларри Маркер (Р)
4%
$25,948 Объем
$25,948 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Бен Рэй Лухан (Д)
$16,689 Объем
96%
Ларри Маркер (Р)
$9,258 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to his established record, substantial fundraising edge, and the state's Democratic lean, which contributed to his 2020 victory. Republican challenger Larry Marker, an oil and gas operator who advanced only as a write-in after no major-party candidates qualified for the primary ballot, faces structural disadvantages including limited visibility and no significant national party support. A late-August poll showed Luján ahead 53-38 among likely voters, consistent with nonpartisan forecasts rating the contest solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the market pricing aligns with these fundamentals, though late-cycle shifts in national conditions, turnout patterns among key voting blocs, or unforeseen developments could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Объем
$25,948Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to his established record, substantial fundraising edge, and the state's Democratic lean, which contributed to his 2020 victory. Republican challenger Larry Marker, an oil and gas operator who advanced only as a write-in after no major-party candidates qualified for the primary ballot, faces structural disadvantages including limited visibility and no significant national party support. A late-August poll showed Luján ahead 53-38 among likely voters, consistent with nonpartisan forecasts rating the contest solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the market pricing aligns with these fundamentals, though late-cycle shifts in national conditions, turnout patterns among key voting blocs, or unforeseen developments could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$25,948Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to his established record, substantial fundraising edge, and the state's Democratic lean, which contributed to his 2020 victory. Republican challenger Larry Marker, an oil and gas operator who advanced only as a write-in after no major-party candidates qualified for the primary ballot, faces structural disadvantages including limited visibility and no significant national party support. A late-August poll showed Luján ahead 53-38 among likely voters, consistent with nonpartisan forecasts rating the contest solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the market pricing aligns with these fundamentals, though late-cycle shifts in national conditions, turnout patterns among key voting blocs, or unforeseen developments could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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