Ongoing Russian missile and drone barrages against Ukraine continue to generate spillover incursions into NATO airspace along the eastern flank, particularly in the Baltic states and Romania, where alliance aircraft under Baltic Air Policing and national missions have intercepted or tracked targets. The most recent confirmed NATO shoot-down of a suspected Russian drone occurred on September 15 over Lithuania by Italian jets, with subsequent September incidents in Romania involving scrambles but no verified intercepts. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has highlighted these gray-zone threats and accelerated development of lower-cost counter-drone capabilities to manage frequency without depleting high-end assets. Heightened hybrid activity and frequent Ukrainian strikes increase the probability of further airspace violations before any scheduled de-escalation.