**Justin Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, faces a single sexual assault charge stemming from an August 2024 allegation, with police arresting him in November 2025.** Multiple women have publicly described similar incidents dating back years, though earlier 2019 and 2023 charges were withdrawn and no additional counts have proceeded to trial. As of mid-2026 reporting, the case remains in early stages with no trial date set, Aguiar maintaining his innocence through counsel, and Canadian courts facing well-documented backlogs in sexual assault matters. These factors support the market-implied 83% probability against conviction before 2027, as resolution within the remaining months of 2026 would require unusually rapid proceedings or an unexpected plea. Key upcoming catalysts include any January court updates or new charges, though historical patterns and procedural timelines favor delay.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДжастин Агиар осужден за сексуальное насилие до 2027 года?
Джастин Агиар осужден за сексуальное насилие до 2027 года?
Да
31% вероятность
$52,562 Объем
$52,562 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
31% вероятность
$52,562 Объем
$52,562 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**Justin Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, faces a single sexual assault charge stemming from an August 2024 allegation, with police arresting him in November 2025.** Multiple women have publicly described similar incidents dating back years, though earlier 2019 and 2023 charges were withdrawn and no additional counts have proceeded to trial. As of mid-2026 reporting, the case remains in early stages with no trial date set, Aguiar maintaining his innocence through counsel, and Canadian courts facing well-documented backlogs in sexual assault matters. These factors support the market-implied 83% probability against conviction before 2027, as resolution within the remaining months of 2026 would require unusually rapid proceedings or an unexpected plea. Key upcoming catalysts include any January court updates or new charges, though historical patterns and procedural timelines favor delay.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET
Объем
$52,562Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**Justin Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, faces a single sexual assault charge stemming from an August 2024 allegation, with police arresting him in November 2025.** Multiple women have publicly described similar incidents dating back years, though earlier 2019 and 2023 charges were withdrawn and no additional counts have proceeded to trial. As of mid-2026 reporting, the case remains in early stages with no trial date set, Aguiar maintaining his innocence through counsel, and Canadian courts facing well-documented backlogs in sexual assault matters. These factors support the market-implied 83% probability against conviction before 2027, as resolution within the remaining months of 2026 would require unusually rapid proceedings or an unexpected plea. Key upcoming catalysts include any January court updates or new charges, though historical patterns and procedural timelines favor delay.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$52,562Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Justin Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, faces a single sexual assault charge stemming from an August 2024 allegation, with police arresting him in November 2025.** Multiple women have publicly described similar incidents dating back years, though earlier 2019 and 2023 charges were withdrawn and no additional counts have proceeded to trial. As of mid-2026 reporting, the case remains in early stages with no trial date set, Aguiar maintaining his innocence through counsel, and Canadian courts facing well-documented backlogs in sexual assault matters. These factors support the market-implied 83% probability against conviction before 2027, as resolution within the remaining months of 2026 would require unusually rapid proceedings or an unexpected plea. Key upcoming catalysts include any January court updates or new charges, though historical patterns and procedural timelines favor delay.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы