Mixed early social media reactions following the London premiere and notably soft presales have shifted trader sentiment toward the sub-$17 million bracket for “Digger,” now the clear market favorite at 52.5% implied probability. Recent Box Office Theory and NRG tracking have cooled from an initial $20–29 million range to around $12–20 million, reflecting comparisons showing the Tom Cruise–Alejandro G. Iñárritu black comedy lagging behind recent wide releases in first-day ticket sales. The $125 million-plus budget and competition from “Verity” add downside pressure, though some analysts still reference the slower-starting “One Battle After Another” as a potential walk-up scenario. Full reviews expected this week and final presale momentum through the October 2 opening will be the key swing factors.