California Democrats have mobilized aggressively against Proposition 39, the voter ID constitutional amendment on the November 3, 2026 ballot, with gubernatorial frontrunner Xavier Becerra and Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas leading a well-funded opposition committee. The measure would require government-issued identification for in-person voting or the last four digits of such an ID for mail ballots—covering the roughly 80 percent of California voters who use mail—while mandating free state-issued cards and enhanced citizenship verification on rolls. Despite qualifying with over 1.3 million signatures in April 2026 and initial poll support near 56 percent, backing has softened after exposure to arguments, and Democratic-leaning voters plus turnout patterns in the state tilt against passage. Court rulings upholding the attorney general’s ballot language have also favored the “no” side. Trader pricing reflects these structural and partisan headwinds for the Republican-backed initiative.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРеферендум по удостоверению личности избирателя в Калифорнии проходит?
Референдум по удостоверению личности избирателя в Калифорнии проходит?
Да
32% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Да
32% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 нояб. 2026 г.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.California Democrats have mobilized aggressively against Proposition 39, the voter ID constitutional amendment on the November 3, 2026 ballot, with gubernatorial frontrunner Xavier Becerra and Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas leading a well-funded opposition committee. The measure would require government-issued identification for in-person voting or the last four digits of such an ID for mail ballots—covering the roughly 80 percent of California voters who use mail—while mandating free state-issued cards and enhanced citizenship verification on rolls. Despite qualifying with over 1.3 million signatures in April 2026 and initial poll support near 56 percent, backing has softened after exposure to arguments, and Democratic-leaning voters plus turnout patterns in the state tilt against passage. Court rulings upholding the attorney general’s ballot language have also favored the “no” side. Trader pricing reflects these structural and partisan headwinds for the Republican-backed initiative.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Объем
$9,487Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070be91...The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.California Democrats have mobilized aggressively against Proposition 39, the voter ID constitutional amendment on the November 3, 2026 ballot, with gubernatorial frontrunner Xavier Becerra and Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas leading a well-funded opposition committee. The measure would require government-issued identification for in-person voting or the last four digits of such an ID for mail ballots—covering the roughly 80 percent of California voters who use mail—while mandating free state-issued cards and enhanced citizenship verification on rolls. Despite qualifying with over 1.3 million signatures in April 2026 and initial poll support near 56 percent, backing has softened after exposure to arguments, and Democratic-leaning voters plus turnout patterns in the state tilt against passage. Court rulings upholding the attorney general’s ballot language have also favored the “no” side. Trader pricing reflects these structural and partisan headwinds for the Republican-backed initiative.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070be91...California Democrats have mobilized aggressively against Proposition 39, the voter ID constitutional amendment on the November 3, 2026 ballot, with gubernatorial frontrunner Xavier Becerra and Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas leading a well-funded opposition committee. The measure would require government-issued identification for in-person voting or the last four digits of such an ID for mail ballots—covering the roughly 80 percent of California voters who use mail—while mandating free state-issued cards and enhanced citizenship verification on rolls. Despite qualifying with over 1.3 million signatures in April 2026 and initial poll support near 56 percent, backing has softened after exposure to arguments, and Democratic-leaning voters plus turnout patterns in the state tilt against passage. Court rulings upholding the attorney general’s ballot language have also favored the “no” side. Trader pricing reflects these structural and partisan headwinds for the Republican-backed initiative.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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