Recent polling averages placed the AfD at 17-18 percent in the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election, nearly doubling its 9.1 percent share from the 2023 repeat vote and positioning it for third place behind the Linke and CDU. National momentum, including gains in eastern states and voter concerns over immigration and economic issues, drove expectations of further consolidation in the capital. This produced trader consensus around 29-31 seats under the personalized proportional system with a 5 percent threshold. Lower actual support near 16.3 percent or shifts among undecided voters and turnout patterns could still reduce the final tally below that range once official seat allocation is confirmed.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено29-31 94.5%
32-34 4.5%
26-28 2.0%
35+ 1.7%
$99,733 Объем
$99,733 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
<20
<1%
20-22
<1%
23-25
1%
26-28
2%
29-31
95%
32-34
5%
35+
2%
29-31 94.5%
32-34 4.5%
26-28 2.0%
35+ 1.7%
$99,733 Объем
$99,733 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
<20
$4,669 Объем
<1%
20-22
$8,811 Объем
<1%
23-25
$5,571 Объем
1%
26-28
$17,032 Объем
2%
29-31
$9,201 Объем
95%
32-34
$16,092 Объем
5%
35+
$38,357 Объем
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages placed the AfD at 17-18 percent in the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election, nearly doubling its 9.1 percent share from the 2023 repeat vote and positioning it for third place behind the Linke and CDU. National momentum, including gains in eastern states and voter concerns over immigration and economic issues, drove expectations of further consolidation in the capital. This produced trader consensus around 29-31 seats under the personalized proportional system with a 5 percent threshold. Lower actual support near 16.3 percent or shifts among undecided voters and turnout patterns could still reduce the final tally below that range once official seat allocation is confirmed.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Объем
$99,733Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages placed the AfD at 17-18 percent in the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election, nearly doubling its 9.1 percent share from the 2023 repeat vote and positioning it for third place behind the Linke and CDU. National momentum, including gains in eastern states and voter concerns over immigration and economic issues, drove expectations of further consolidation in the capital. This produced trader consensus around 29-31 seats under the personalized proportional system with a 5 percent threshold. Lower actual support near 16.3 percent or shifts among undecided voters and turnout patterns could still reduce the final tally below that range once official seat allocation is confirmed.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Объем
$99,733Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages placed the AfD at 17-18 percent in the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election, nearly doubling its 9.1 percent share from the 2023 repeat vote and positioning it for third place behind the Linke and CDU. National momentum, including gains in eastern states and voter concerns over immigration and economic issues, drove expectations of further consolidation in the capital. This produced trader consensus around 29-31 seats under the personalized proportional system with a 5 percent threshold. Lower actual support near 16.3 percent or shifts among undecided voters and turnout patterns could still reduce the final tally below that range once official seat allocation is confirmed.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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