**Nigel Farage triggered and won a Clacton by-election in August 2026 after resigning his seat in July amid a parliamentary standards investigation into an alleged failure to declare a £5 million gift from a major donor.** He returned as MP with 63.3% of the vote against novelty and fringe candidates after major parties boycotted the contest. The standards probe, paused during the by-election, has since resumed, with any adverse finding potentially leading to suspension and a recall petition that could force another vote. Traders assign 91% probability to no further by-election in 2026 because the investigation timeline, procedural hurdles for suspension exceeding 10 sitting days, and recall petition thresholds make a second contest before year-end improbable. Farage has publicly downplayed the risk, and no other vacancy triggers—such as resignation or disqualification—have emerged. The recent by-election outcome and limited remaining parliamentary calendar reinforce the current market consensus on low likelihood of repetition this year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
9% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
9% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Nigel Farage triggered and won a Clacton by-election in August 2026 after resigning his seat in July amid a parliamentary standards investigation into an alleged failure to declare a £5 million gift from a major donor.** He returned as MP with 63.3% of the vote against novelty and fringe candidates after major parties boycotted the contest. The standards probe, paused during the by-election, has since resumed, with any adverse finding potentially leading to suspension and a recall petition that could force another vote.
Traders assign 91% probability to no further by-election in 2026 because the investigation timeline, procedural hurdles for suspension exceeding 10 sitting days, and recall petition thresholds make a second contest before year-end improbable. Farage has publicly downplayed the risk, and no other vacancy triggers—such as resignation or disqualification—have emerged. The recent by-election outcome and limited remaining parliamentary calendar reinforce the current market consensus on low likelihood of repetition this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ET
Объем
$641Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Nigel Farage triggered and won a Clacton by-election in August 2026 after resigning his seat in July amid a parliamentary standards investigation into an alleged failure to declare a £5 million gift from a major donor.** He returned as MP with 63.3% of the vote against novelty and fringe candidates after major parties boycotted the contest. The standards probe, paused during the by-election, has since resumed, with any adverse finding potentially leading to suspension and a recall petition that could force another vote.
Traders assign 91% probability to no further by-election in 2026 because the investigation timeline, procedural hurdles for suspension exceeding 10 sitting days, and recall petition thresholds make a second contest before year-end improbable. Farage has publicly downplayed the risk, and no other vacancy triggers—such as resignation or disqualification—have emerged. The recent by-election outcome and limited remaining parliamentary calendar reinforce the current market consensus on low likelihood of repetition this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$641Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Nigel Farage triggered and won a Clacton by-election in August 2026 after resigning his seat in July amid a parliamentary standards investigation into an alleged failure to declare a £5 million gift from a major donor.** He returned as MP with 63.3% of the vote against novelty and fringe candidates after major parties boycotted the contest. The standards probe, paused during the by-election, has since resumed, with any adverse finding potentially leading to suspension and a recall petition that could force another vote. Traders assign 91% probability to no further by-election in 2026 because the investigation timeline, procedural hurdles for suspension exceeding 10 sitting days, and recall petition thresholds make a second contest before year-end improbable. Farage has publicly downplayed the risk, and no other vacancy triggers—such as resignation or disqualification—have emerged. The recent by-election outcome and limited remaining parliamentary calendar reinforce the current market consensus on low likelihood of repetition this year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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