Russian forces have made negligible progress toward Malokaterynivka (Mala Tokmachka) in Zaporizhzhia Oblast despite repeated assaults since late 2025, with Ukrainian defenders repelling infantry, motorcycle, and armored probes using drones and fortifications. ISW assessments through September 2026 show no confirmed Russian territorial control in the village, consistent with stalled advances around Orikhiv and Hulyaipole amid Ukrainian counteractions elsewhere. Russian operations prioritize Donetsk axes such as Kostyantynivka and Lyman, where incremental gains occur but at high cost and slow pace. Prediction markets price low probabilities for capture by late 2026 deadlines, reflecting the settlement's defensive resilience, river barriers, and absence of major Russian reinforcements or breakthroughs in the sector.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Rússia entrará em Malokaterynivka até...?
$287,816 Vol.
December 31
5%
$287,816 Vol.
December 31
5%
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Malokaterynivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: May 27, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Territory will be considered captured if any part of Malokaterynivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have made negligible progress toward Malokaterynivka (Mala Tokmachka) in Zaporizhzhia Oblast despite repeated assaults since late 2025, with Ukrainian defenders repelling infantry, motorcycle, and armored probes using drones and fortifications. ISW assessments through September 2026 show no confirmed Russian territorial control in the village, consistent with stalled advances around Orikhiv and Hulyaipole amid Ukrainian counteractions elsewhere. Russian operations prioritize Donetsk axes such as Kostyantynivka and Lyman, where incremental gains occur but at high cost and slow pace. Prediction markets price low probabilities for capture by late 2026 deadlines, reflecting the settlement's defensive resilience, river barriers, and absence of major Russian reinforcements or breakthroughs in the sector.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado



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