Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his January 3, 2026 capture by American forces during a military operation in Caracas. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, face narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges, to which they have pleaded not guilty, with a federal trial scheduled for June 2027 in Manhattan. Defense motions seeking dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds and Flores's recent request for home confinement due to reported heart issues are pending, though prosecutors oppose release. Trader consensus on low near-term release probabilities reflects the charges' severity, pretrial detention norms in such cases, and absence of diplomatic or judicial developments indicating imminent bail, parole, or dismissal before late 2026 or 2027 milestones. Upcoming court arguments on jurisdiction and any plea discussions could influence outcomes, but structural barriers remain significant.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$2,689,498 Vol.
30 jan 2026
31 de dezembro
7%
$2,689,498 Vol.
31 de dezembro
$294,049 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his January 3, 2026 capture by American forces during a military operation in Caracas. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, face narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges, to which they have pleaded not guilty, with a federal trial scheduled for June 2027 in Manhattan. Defense motions seeking dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds and Flores's recent request for home confinement due to reported heart issues are pending, though prosecutors oppose release. Trader consensus on low near-term release probabilities reflects the charges' severity, pretrial detention norms in such cases, and absence of diplomatic or judicial developments indicating imminent bail, parole, or dismissal before late 2026 or 2027 milestones. Upcoming court arguments on jurisdiction and any plea discussions could influence outcomes, but structural barriers remain significant.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,689,498Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his January 3, 2026 capture by American forces during a military operation in Caracas. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, face narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges, to which they have pleaded not guilty, with a federal trial scheduled for June 2027 in Manhattan. Defense motions seeking dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds and Flores's recent request for home confinement due to reported heart issues are pending, though prosecutors oppose release. Trader consensus on low near-term release probabilities reflects the charges' severity, pretrial detention norms in such cases, and absence of diplomatic or judicial developments indicating imminent bail, parole, or dismissal before late 2026 or 2027 milestones. Upcoming court arguments on jurisdiction and any plea discussions could influence outcomes, but structural barriers remain significant.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,689,498Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his January 3, 2026 capture by American forces during a military operation in Caracas. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, face narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges, to which they have pleaded not guilty, with a federal trial scheduled for June 2027 in Manhattan. Defense motions seeking dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds and Flores's recent request for home confinement due to reported heart issues are pending, though prosecutors oppose release. Trader consensus on low near-term release probabilities reflects the charges' severity, pretrial detention norms in such cases, and absence of diplomatic or judicial developments indicating imminent bail, parole, or dismissal before late 2026 or 2027 milestones. Upcoming court arguments on jurisdiction and any plea discussions could influence outcomes, but structural barriers remain significant.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions