Recent NSIDC and JAXA observations place the 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with the market's overwhelming 96.8% implied probability for the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer bin. Mid-September daily extents have hovered between roughly 4.46 and 4.72 million square kilometers, consistent with a typical post-2010 outcome rather than the extreme lows of 2012 or 2020. Persistent but not record-setting melt through August, combined with cooling solar input and stabilizing ice edges, supports this range. A late-season warm anomaly or model underestimation of remaining melt could push values below 4.4 million, though such shifts appear improbable given current agency data and the seasonal cycle.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoExtensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?
Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?
4,4-4,6 milhões km² 96.7%
4,2-4,4 milhões km² 1.8%
4,0-4,2 milhões km² 1.6%
<4 milhões de km² 1.4%
$85,188 Vol.
$85,188 Vol.
30 set 2026
<4 milhões de km²
1%
4,0-4,2 milhões km²
2%
4,2-4,4 milhões km²
2%
4,4-4,6 milhões km²
97%
4,6-4,8m km²
<1%
4,8-5 milhões km²
<1%
5 milhões+ km²
<1%
4,4-4,6 milhões km² 96.7%
4,2-4,4 milhões km² 1.8%
4,0-4,2 milhões km² 1.6%
<4 milhões de km² 1.4%
$85,188 Vol.
$85,188 Vol.
30 set 2026
<4 milhões de km²
$35,947 Vol.
1%
4,0-4,2 milhões km²
$8,751 Vol.
2%
4,2-4,4 milhões km²
$4,207 Vol.
2%
4,4-4,6 milhões km²
$5,412 Vol.
97%
4,6-4,8m km²
$10,729 Vol.
<1%
4,8-5 milhões km²
$4,717 Vol.
<1%
5 milhões+ km²
$15,426 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent NSIDC and JAXA observations place the 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with the market's overwhelming 96.8% implied probability for the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer bin. Mid-September daily extents have hovered between roughly 4.46 and 4.72 million square kilometers, consistent with a typical post-2010 outcome rather than the extreme lows of 2012 or 2020. Persistent but not record-setting melt through August, combined with cooling solar input and stabilizing ice edges, supports this range. A late-season warm anomaly or model underestimation of remaining melt could push values below 4.4 million, though such shifts appear improbable given current agency data and the seasonal cycle.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$85,188Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent NSIDC and JAXA observations place the 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with the market's overwhelming 96.8% implied probability for the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer bin. Mid-September daily extents have hovered between roughly 4.46 and 4.72 million square kilometers, consistent with a typical post-2010 outcome rather than the extreme lows of 2012 or 2020. Persistent but not record-setting melt through August, combined with cooling solar input and stabilizing ice edges, supports this range. A late-season warm anomaly or model underestimation of remaining melt could push values below 4.4 million, though such shifts appear improbable given current agency data and the seasonal cycle.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$85,188Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent NSIDC and JAXA observations place the 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with the market's overwhelming 96.8% implied probability for the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer bin. Mid-September daily extents have hovered between roughly 4.46 and 4.72 million square kilometers, consistent with a typical post-2010 outcome rather than the extreme lows of 2012 or 2020. Persistent but not record-setting melt through August, combined with cooling solar input and stabilizing ice edges, supports this range. A late-season warm anomaly or model underestimation of remaining melt could push values below 4.4 million, though such shifts appear improbable given current agency data and the seasonal cycle.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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