Skip to main content

Para negociar nos EUA, acesse polymarket.us

icon for Leopold Aschenbrenner acusado por...?

Leopold Aschenbrenner acusado por...?

icon for Leopold Aschenbrenner acusado por...?

Leopold Aschenbrenner acusado por...?

$10,292 Vol.

31 dez 2026
Polymarket

$10,292 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de dezembro de 2026

$6,535 Vol.

7%

June 30, 2027

$1,598 Vol.

8%

December 31, 2027

$2,159 Vol.

29%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Leopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI researcher and founder of the AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness, faces low odds of criminal charges through the end of 2026.** His fund grew rapidly on leveraged bets in AI infrastructure stocks before suffering a sharp July 2026 meltdown, with assets dropping from a peak near $45 billion amid margin calls and a large portfolio sale to Citadel. Federal regulators have examined the trading activity, yet reporting as of late August shows no formal investigations, indictments, or charges by any U.S. jurisdiction. Aschenbrenner’s 2024 departure from OpenAI stemmed from an employment dispute over information sharing rather than criminal allegations, and his past ties to FTX have not produced new enforcement actions. Upcoming catalysts remain limited, with the market reflecting the absence of developments that typically precede indictments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$10,292
Data de Término
1 jan 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 30, 2026, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Leopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI researcher and founder of the AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness, faces low odds of criminal charges through the end of 2026.** His fund grew rapidly on leveraged bets in AI infrastructure stocks before suffering a sharp July 2026 meltdown, with assets dropping from a peak near $45 billion amid margin calls and a large portfolio sale to Citadel. Federal regulators have examined the trading activity, yet reporting as of late August shows no formal investigations, indictments, or charges by any U.S. jurisdiction. Aschenbrenner’s 2024 departure from OpenAI stemmed from an employment dispute over information sharing rather than criminal allegations, and his past ties to FTX have not produced new enforcement actions. Upcoming catalysts remain limited, with the market reflecting the absence of developments that typically precede indictments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$10,292
Data de Término
1 jan 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 30, 2026, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Relacionado

icon for Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?

Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?

67%
icon for Os Democratas vão vencer o Condado de Fort Bend na disputa pelo Senado do Texas em 2026?

Os Democratas vão vencer o Condado de Fort Bend na disputa pelo Senado do Texas em 2026?

88%
Sim
icon for Novo episódio de 'Stranger Things' lançado até 31 de março de 2027?

Novo episódio de 'Stranger Things' lançado até 31 de março de 2027?

6%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Leopold Aschenbrenner acusado por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2027" at 28%, followed by "June 30, 2027" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Leopold Aschenbrenner acusado por...?" has generated $10.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Leopold Aschenbrenner acusado por...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Leopold Aschenbrenner acusado por...?" is "December 31, 2027" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30, 2027" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Leopold Aschenbrenner acusado por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.