**Japan 10-year government bond yields have climbed to approximately 2.98–3.00% in mid-September 2026 amid accelerating Bank of Japan policy normalization, with the policy rate recently raised to 1.25%.** Persistent inflation risks from elevated energy prices, a weak yen, and record fiscal 2027 budget requests exceeding ¥143 trillion have reinforced expectations for further tightening and higher long-term borrowing costs. These dynamics, combined with fiscal sustainability concerns and global yield repricing, have positioned the 3.0%+ outcome at 67.3% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on continued upward pressure through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming BOJ communications and incoming CPI data that could influence the pace of normalization.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado3.0%+ 67.3%
2.8-3.0% 18.7%
2.4-2.6% 6.8%
2.6-2.8% 2.9%
$29,873 Vol.
$29,873 Vol.
30 dez 2026
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
<1%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
19%
3.0%+
67%
3.0%+ 67.3%
2.8-3.0% 18.7%
2.4-2.6% 6.8%
2.6-2.8% 2.9%
$29,873 Vol.
$29,873 Vol.
30 dez 2026
<2.0%
$1,370 Vol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,701 Vol.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,263 Vol.
<1%
2.4-2.6%
$2,562 Vol.
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,556 Vol.
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,716 Vol.
19%
3.0%+
$11,705 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.**Japan 10-year government bond yields have climbed to approximately 2.98–3.00% in mid-September 2026 amid accelerating Bank of Japan policy normalization, with the policy rate recently raised to 1.25%.** Persistent inflation risks from elevated energy prices, a weak yen, and record fiscal 2027 budget requests exceeding ¥143 trillion have reinforced expectations for further tightening and higher long-term borrowing costs. These dynamics, combined with fiscal sustainability concerns and global yield repricing, have positioned the 3.0%+ outcome at 67.3% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on continued upward pressure through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming BOJ communications and incoming CPI data that could influence the pace of normalization.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,873Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.**Japan 10-year government bond yields have climbed to approximately 2.98–3.00% in mid-September 2026 amid accelerating Bank of Japan policy normalization, with the policy rate recently raised to 1.25%.** Persistent inflation risks from elevated energy prices, a weak yen, and record fiscal 2027 budget requests exceeding ¥143 trillion have reinforced expectations for further tightening and higher long-term borrowing costs. These dynamics, combined with fiscal sustainability concerns and global yield repricing, have positioned the 3.0%+ outcome at 67.3% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on continued upward pressure through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming BOJ communications and incoming CPI data that could influence the pace of normalization.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Volume
$29,873Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Japan 10-year government bond yields have climbed to approximately 2.98–3.00% in mid-September 2026 amid accelerating Bank of Japan policy normalization, with the policy rate recently raised to 1.25%.** Persistent inflation risks from elevated energy prices, a weak yen, and record fiscal 2027 budget requests exceeding ¥143 trillion have reinforced expectations for further tightening and higher long-term borrowing costs. These dynamics, combined with fiscal sustainability concerns and global yield repricing, have positioned the 3.0%+ outcome at 67.3% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on continued upward pressure through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming BOJ communications and incoming CPI data that could influence the pace of normalization.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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