Skip to main content

Para negociar nos EUA, acesse polymarket.us

icon for Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026
Desporto·Futebol

Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026

icon for Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026
Desporto·Futebol

Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026

Harry Kane 62.5%

Lamine Yamal 16.3%

Kylian Mbappé 10.9%

Rodri 5%

Polymarket

$34,144,949 Vol.

Harry Kane 62.5%

Lamine Yamal 16.3%

Kylian Mbappé 10.9%

Rodri 5%

Polymarket

$34,144,949 Vol.

Harry Kane

$4,078,945 Vol.

63%

Lamine Yamal

$2,206,648 Vol.

16%

Kylian Mbappé

$2,139,531 Vol.

11%

Rodri

$1,527,067 Vol.

5%

Lionel Messi

$2,462,124 Vol.

3%

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

$1,504,219 Vol.

3%

Fabian Ruiz

$1,155,120 Vol.

1%

Ousmane Dembélé

$2,212,673 Vol.

1%

Michael Olise

$1,706,371 Vol.

<1%

Erling Haaland

$1,551,917 Vol.

<1%

Jude Bellingham

$1,278,826 Vol.

<1%

Vitinha

$843,279 Vol.

<1%

Vinícius Júnior

$1,069,433 Vol.

<1%

Declan Rice

$864,656 Vol.

<1%

Bruno Fernandes

$711,222 Vol.

<1%

Lautaro Martinez

$490,016 Vol.

<1%

Achraf Hakimi

$740,083 Vol.

<1%

Luis Diaz

$440,734 Vol.

<1%

Pau Cubarsi

$949,675 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market with a 62.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus around his record 61-goal Bundesliga and Champions League campaign for Bayern Munich plus six World Cup goals that helped England reach the semifinals. The shortlist announcement on September 8 reinforced this positioning after Kane's domestic double and consistent big-game contributions. Lamine Yamal sits at 16.3% on the strength of Spain's World Cup triumph, though injuries curtailed his tournament impact, while Kylian Mbappé at 10.9% benefits from individual scoring volume without major team silverware. Rodri's 4.5% share ties to his central role in Spain's collective success, with the remaining field trailing on limited collective achievements or lower recent output.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Volume
$34,144,949
Data de Término
31 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market with a 62.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus around his record 61-goal Bundesliga and Champions League campaign for Bayern Munich plus six World Cup goals that helped England reach the semifinals. The shortlist announcement on September 8 reinforced this positioning after Kane's domestic double and consistent big-game contributions. Lamine Yamal sits at 16.3% on the strength of Spain's World Cup triumph, though injuries curtailed his tournament impact, while Kylian Mbappé at 10.9% benefits from individual scoring volume without major team silverware. Rodri's 4.5% share ties to his central role in Spain's collective success, with the remaining field trailing on limited collective achievements or lower recent output.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Volume
$34,144,949
Data de Término
31 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Relacionado

icon for Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?

Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?

63%
icon for Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

94%
icon for Will Harry Kane finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Will Harry Kane finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

98%

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 31 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Harry Kane" at 63%, followed by "Lamine Yamal" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026" has generated $34.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026," browse the 31 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026" is "Harry Kane" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lamine Yamal" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da Bola de Ouro 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.