Trader consensus reflects the absence of any formal annexation process or Venezuelan consent under Article IV of the U.S. Constitution, which requires congressional approval and a state constitution ratified by the affected population. U.S. actions since early 2026, including the removal of Nicolás Maduro and installation of interim leadership, have centered on securing oil resources through agreements rather than statehood, with recent deals granting U.S. stakes in production without altering sovereignty. Venezuelan officials have repeatedly rejected integration, emphasizing independence. High implied probability for "No" aligns with historical precedent—no foreign territory has joined as a state since Hawaii—and structural hurdles like congressional majorities and local referendums. Late developments such as expanded resource pacts or policy shifts could theoretically reopen discussion before the December 31, 2026 resolution, though none are currently underway.