**Internal power struggles in Iran, framed by hardliners as a "soft coup" or "political coup" against Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, are the main driver of trader sentiment on this market.** Khamenei, appointed in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei's death, has remained largely absent from public view, with only written statements issued in his name, fueling speculation about his authority and condition. Moderate figures including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf have led US negotiations and elevated the Supreme National Security Council's role in wartime decisions, prompting accusations from radical factions (such as the Paydari Front and lawmakers like Mahmoud Nabavian and Kamran Ghazanfari) that they are sidelining the supreme leader, parliament, and revolutionary institutions to pursue a truce. These claims intensified in July 2026 around Ali Khamenei's funeral and US ceasefire talks. A September 2026 New York Times report, citing Iranian officials, detailed how hardliner Hossein Taeb orchestrated July attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz without central approval to derail the deal, exploiting the leadership vacuum. This has deepened factional divides amid ongoing US-Iran exchanges of fire, with hardliners favoring escalation and moderates warning of economic ruin. No verified military coup attempt has occurred; the market centers on whether rhetoric translates into an overt power grab or leadership change before resolution criteria are met. Key upcoming factors include any public assertion of authority by Mojtaba Khamenei, further escalation decisions, or shifts in negotiation status. Trader odds reflect uncertainty over whether internal divisions will produce a tangible coup event or remain contained.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIran coup attempt by...?
Iran coup attempt by...?
$2,132,862 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
9%
$2,132,862 Wol.
December 31
$91,636 Wol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal power struggles in Iran, framed by hardliners as a "soft coup" or "political coup" against Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, are the main driver of trader sentiment on this market.**
Khamenei, appointed in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei's death, has remained largely absent from public view, with only written statements issued in his name, fueling speculation about his authority and condition. Moderate figures including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf have led US negotiations and elevated the Supreme National Security Council's role in wartime decisions, prompting accusations from radical factions (such as the Paydari Front and lawmakers like Mahmoud Nabavian and Kamran Ghazanfari) that they are sidelining the supreme leader, parliament, and revolutionary institutions to pursue a truce.
These claims intensified in July 2026 around Ali Khamenei's funeral and US ceasefire talks. A September 2026 New York Times report, citing Iranian officials, detailed how hardliner Hossein Taeb orchestrated July attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz without central approval to derail the deal, exploiting the leadership vacuum. This has deepened factional divides amid ongoing US-Iran exchanges of fire, with hardliners favoring escalation and moderates warning of economic ruin.
No verified military coup attempt has occurred; the market centers on whether rhetoric translates into an overt power grab or leadership change before resolution criteria are met. Key upcoming factors include any public assertion of authority by Mojtaba Khamenei, further escalation decisions, or shifts in negotiation status. Trader odds reflect uncertainty over whether internal divisions will produce a tangible coup event or remain contained.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,132,862Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal power struggles in Iran, framed by hardliners as a "soft coup" or "political coup" against Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, are the main driver of trader sentiment on this market.**
Khamenei, appointed in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei's death, has remained largely absent from public view, with only written statements issued in his name, fueling speculation about his authority and condition. Moderate figures including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf have led US negotiations and elevated the Supreme National Security Council's role in wartime decisions, prompting accusations from radical factions (such as the Paydari Front and lawmakers like Mahmoud Nabavian and Kamran Ghazanfari) that they are sidelining the supreme leader, parliament, and revolutionary institutions to pursue a truce.
These claims intensified in July 2026 around Ali Khamenei's funeral and US ceasefire talks. A September 2026 New York Times report, citing Iranian officials, detailed how hardliner Hossein Taeb orchestrated July attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz without central approval to derail the deal, exploiting the leadership vacuum. This has deepened factional divides amid ongoing US-Iran exchanges of fire, with hardliners favoring escalation and moderates warning of economic ruin.
No verified military coup attempt has occurred; the market centers on whether rhetoric translates into an overt power grab or leadership change before resolution criteria are met. Key upcoming factors include any public assertion of authority by Mojtaba Khamenei, further escalation decisions, or shifts in negotiation status. Trader odds reflect uncertainty over whether internal divisions will produce a tangible coup event or remain contained.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$2,132,862Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...**Internal power struggles in Iran, framed by hardliners as a "soft coup" or "political coup" against Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, are the main driver of trader sentiment on this market.** Khamenei, appointed in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei's death, has remained largely absent from public view, with only written statements issued in his name, fueling speculation about his authority and condition. Moderate figures including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf have led US negotiations and elevated the Supreme National Security Council's role in wartime decisions, prompting accusations from radical factions (such as the Paydari Front and lawmakers like Mahmoud Nabavian and Kamran Ghazanfari) that they are sidelining the supreme leader, parliament, and revolutionary institutions to pursue a truce. These claims intensified in July 2026 around Ali Khamenei's funeral and US ceasefire talks. A September 2026 New York Times report, citing Iranian officials, detailed how hardliner Hossein Taeb orchestrated July attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz without central approval to derail the deal, exploiting the leadership vacuum. This has deepened factional divides amid ongoing US-Iran exchanges of fire, with hardliners favoring escalation and moderates warning of economic ruin. No verified military coup attempt has occurred; the market centers on whether rhetoric translates into an overt power grab or leadership change before resolution criteria are met. Key upcoming factors include any public assertion of authority by Mojtaba Khamenei, further escalation decisions, or shifts in negotiation status. Trader odds reflect uncertainty over whether internal divisions will produce a tangible coup event or remain contained.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania