Bipartisan opposition from labor, business groups, and figures across parties has mobilized against Michigan’s automatic 2026 constitutional convention question, citing risks of special-interest influence and an open-ended rewrite of the 1963 constitution. Voters have rejected the proposal in every prior cycle since adoption—most recently by 67% in 2010—with the measure appearing every 16 years under constitutional mandate. Recent polling shows a plurality favoring a convention but leaves over one-fifth undecided, consistent with patterns where skepticism solidifies closer to election day amid limited organized support for approval. Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability to rejection, reflecting this historical baseline and structural barriers. Late shifts could occur only through unusually high turnout among convention supporters or unforeseen events altering the information environment before November 3.