Emmanuel Macron’s second and final term ends in May 2027, with the presidential election already scheduled for April, leaving limited political bandwidth and incentive for a late-year referendum under Article 11 or related procedures. Recent policy priorities, including a revised under-15 social media restriction following the Constitutional Council’s August 2026 ruling, are advancing through legislative revision and EU-level coordination targeted for spring 2027 rather than direct popular vote. Assisted-dying legislation reached enactment via parliamentary channels, while earlier referendum suggestions on pensions and institutional reform have not produced announced timetables. A fragmented National Assembly and the pre-campaign environment further reduce the likelihood of convening voters before year-end. Traders’ 96.6% probability for “No” reflects this absence of acute deadlock or confirmed plans, though an unforeseen institutional crisis could still prompt a decree published in the Journal officiel.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano3% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
3% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Emmanuel Macron’s second and final term ends in May 2027, with the presidential election already scheduled for April, leaving limited political bandwidth and incentive for a late-year referendum under Article 11 or related procedures. Recent policy priorities, including a revised under-15 social media restriction following the Constitutional Council’s August 2026 ruling, are advancing through legislative revision and EU-level coordination targeted for spring 2027 rather than direct popular vote. Assisted-dying legislation reached enactment via parliamentary channels, while earlier referendum suggestions on pensions and institutional reform have not produced announced timetables. A fragmented National Assembly and the pre-campaign environment further reduce the likelihood of convening voters before year-end. Traders’ 96.6% probability for “No” reflects this absence of acute deadlock or confirmed plans, though an unforeseen institutional crisis could still prompt a decree published in the Journal officiel.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Wolumen
$78Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Emmanuel Macron’s second and final term ends in May 2027, with the presidential election already scheduled for April, leaving limited political bandwidth and incentive for a late-year referendum under Article 11 or related procedures. Recent policy priorities, including a revised under-15 social media restriction following the Constitutional Council’s August 2026 ruling, are advancing through legislative revision and EU-level coordination targeted for spring 2027 rather than direct popular vote. Assisted-dying legislation reached enactment via parliamentary channels, while earlier referendum suggestions on pensions and institutional reform have not produced announced timetables. A fragmented National Assembly and the pre-campaign environment further reduce the likelihood of convening voters before year-end. Traders’ 96.6% probability for “No” reflects this absence of acute deadlock or confirmed plans, though an unforeseen institutional crisis could still prompt a decree published in the Journal officiel.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$78Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Emmanuel Macron’s second and final term ends in May 2027, with the presidential election already scheduled for April, leaving limited political bandwidth and incentive for a late-year referendum under Article 11 or related procedures. Recent policy priorities, including a revised under-15 social media restriction following the Constitutional Council’s August 2026 ruling, are advancing through legislative revision and EU-level coordination targeted for spring 2027 rather than direct popular vote. Assisted-dying legislation reached enactment via parliamentary channels, while earlier referendum suggestions on pensions and institutional reform have not produced announced timetables. A fragmented National Assembly and the pre-campaign environment further reduce the likelihood of convening voters before year-end. Traders’ 96.6% probability for “No” reflects this absence of acute deadlock or confirmed plans, though an unforeseen institutional crisis could still prompt a decree published in the Journal officiel.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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