Tight U.S. cattle supplies, with the national herd at its lowest level in roughly 75 years after sustained drought-driven liquidation, continue to underpin elevated ground beef prices near $6.89 per pound as of July 2026—up about 9–10% year-over-year and near record highs. Strong consumer demand, including substitution toward ground beef amid high steak prices, has amplified the supply squeeze, while the New World screwworm outbreak in Texas adds further near-term pressure on movement and margins. Recent tariff relief allowing up to 300,000 metric tons of additional lean beef imports from South America aims to ease retail costs, though analysts expect only modest price impacts of 1–3% on fed cattle and limited immediate relief given already elevated import volumes. USDA forecasts point to beef and veal prices rising nearly 10% for full-year 2026, with herd rebuilding unlikely to ease supplies before 2028.