The U.S. military has relied on an all-volunteer force since 1973, with no congressional authorization or presidential activation of conscription under the Military Selective Service Act. Recent developments, including end-strength increases for active-duty personnel through voluntary recruitment and the 2025 NDAA provision for automatic Selective Service registration by December 2026, reflect administrative updates rather than any move toward a draft. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no authorization stems from the high legislative and political barriers, absence of required votes or executive directives, and sustained emphasis on voluntary service amid current force planning. Late-year developments such as major conflict escalation or sudden congressional action could still shift probabilities before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano4% szansa
$525,568 Wol.
$525,568 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% szansa
$525,568 Wol.
$525,568 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. military has relied on an all-volunteer force since 1973, with no congressional authorization or presidential activation of conscription under the Military Selective Service Act. Recent developments, including end-strength increases for active-duty personnel through voluntary recruitment and the 2025 NDAA provision for automatic Selective Service registration by December 2026, reflect administrative updates rather than any move toward a draft. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no authorization stems from the high legislative and political barriers, absence of required votes or executive directives, and sustained emphasis on voluntary service amid current force planning. Late-year developments such as major conflict escalation or sudden congressional action could still shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Wolumen
$525,568Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. military has relied on an all-volunteer force since 1973, with no congressional authorization or presidential activation of conscription under the Military Selective Service Act. Recent developments, including end-strength increases for active-duty personnel through voluntary recruitment and the 2025 NDAA provision for automatic Selective Service registration by December 2026, reflect administrative updates rather than any move toward a draft. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no authorization stems from the high legislative and political barriers, absence of required votes or executive directives, and sustained emphasis on voluntary service amid current force planning. Late-year developments such as major conflict escalation or sudden congressional action could still shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$525,568Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The U.S. military has relied on an all-volunteer force since 1973, with no congressional authorization or presidential activation of conscription under the Military Selective Service Act. Recent developments, including end-strength increases for active-duty personnel through voluntary recruitment and the 2025 NDAA provision for automatic Selective Service registration by December 2026, reflect administrative updates rather than any move toward a draft. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no authorization stems from the high legislative and political barriers, absence of required votes or executive directives, and sustained emphasis on voluntary service amid current force planning. Late-year developments such as major conflict escalation or sudden congressional action could still shift probabilities before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania