Albania edges the implied probability in UEFA Nations League Group C1 as the league phase opens, but Finland remains within striking distance thanks to comparable squad depth and head-to-head history in recent cycles. Belarus can still harvest points against the group’s weakest side while staying organized on the road, keeping its promotion odds alive into the autumn fixtures. San Marino’s limited resources and defensive vulnerabilities cap its ceiling. With every team playing a full round-robin of home-and-away matches through November, small differences in recent form, set-piece execution, and recovery from early travel will determine final standings and explain why trader consensus shows limited separation among the leading contenders.