Google holds the strongest market-implied odds at 69.5% for third-best AI lab by end-September 2026 because traders view Anthropic and OpenAI as the clear top two based on recent benchmark leadership. Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra posted the highest Intelligence Index scores in early September updates, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and related releases improved agentic and coding performance but trailed on flagship capability and cost-efficiency frontiers. Google’s research depth, infrastructure scale, and integration across Search, Cloud, and Maps provide a stable base that other contenders lack, even as Meta, Moonshot, and several Chinese labs post competitive open-weight or specialized results. No major new flagship announcements have shifted this ordering in the past week.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoThird-best AI Lab end of September?
Third-best AI Lab end of September?
Google 70%
Meta 15.4%
OpenAI 7%
Moonshot 3.7%
$66,962 Wol.
$66,962 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
70%
Meta
15%
OpenAI
7%
Moonshot
4%
Alibaba
3%
Anthropic
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 70%
Meta 15.4%
OpenAI 7%
Moonshot 3.7%
$66,962 Wol.
$66,962 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
$30,499 Wol.
70%
Meta
$6,556 Wol.
15%
OpenAI
$3,479 Wol.
7%
Moonshot
$1,760 Wol.
4%
Alibaba
$7,982 Wol.
3%
Anthropic
$1,351 Wol.
1%
Z.ai
$1,405 Wol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,508 Wol.
1%
DeepSeek
$1,687 Wol.
1%
Baidu
$1,387 Wol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$866 Wol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,006 Wol.
<1%
MiniMax
$981 Wol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,092 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$441 Wol.
<1%
ByteDance
$714 Wol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,018 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$669 Wol.
<1%
Meituan
$970 Wol.
<1%
StepFun
$421 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,170 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google holds the strongest market-implied odds at 69.5% for third-best AI lab by end-September 2026 because traders view Anthropic and OpenAI as the clear top two based on recent benchmark leadership. Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra posted the highest Intelligence Index scores in early September updates, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and related releases improved agentic and coding performance but trailed on flagship capability and cost-efficiency frontiers. Google’s research depth, infrastructure scale, and integration across Search, Cloud, and Maps provide a stable base that other contenders lack, even as Meta, Moonshot, and several Chinese labs post competitive open-weight or specialized results. No major new flagship announcements have shifted this ordering in the past week.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$66,962Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google holds the strongest market-implied odds at 69.5% for third-best AI lab by end-September 2026 because traders view Anthropic and OpenAI as the clear top two based on recent benchmark leadership. Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra posted the highest Intelligence Index scores in early September updates, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and related releases improved agentic and coding performance but trailed on flagship capability and cost-efficiency frontiers. Google’s research depth, infrastructure scale, and integration across Search, Cloud, and Maps provide a stable base that other contenders lack, even as Meta, Moonshot, and several Chinese labs post competitive open-weight or specialized results. No major new flagship announcements have shifted this ordering in the past week.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$66,962Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Google holds the strongest market-implied odds at 69.5% for third-best AI lab by end-September 2026 because traders view Anthropic and OpenAI as the clear top two based on recent benchmark leadership. Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra posted the highest Intelligence Index scores in early September updates, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and related releases improved agentic and coding performance but trailed on flagship capability and cost-efficiency frontiers. Google’s research depth, infrastructure scale, and integration across Search, Cloud, and Maps provide a stable base that other contenders lack, even as Meta, Moonshot, and several Chinese labs post competitive open-weight or specialized results. No major new flagship announcements have shifted this ordering in the past week.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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