Switzerland’s November 29, 2026, ballot features four federal measures: a mandatory referendum on raising VAT to fund the AVS old-age pension system, a popular initiative restricting fireworks, a Centre Party initiative ending the federal tax disadvantage for married couples, and an amendment to the War Material Act easing arms export restrictions to certain partners. Trader consensus has settled on the War Material amendment as the leading outcome at roughly 62-77% implied probability, reflecting sustained focus on neutrality debates and security policy amid broader European tensions. The VAT decree follows closely at 59-65%, while the fireworks and marriage taxation initiatives trail at around 21-24%. No major new catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days beyond ongoing parliamentary and public discussion of these proposals, leaving momentum tied to established partisan alignments and historical patterns of Swiss direct democracy on fiscal, environmental, and defense issues. The November 29 vote will resolve all four simultaneously.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSwitzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?
Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?
NOWE
Nov 28, 2026
VAT federal decree
70%
Fireworks restriction initiative
33%
Marriage taxation initiative
16%
War Material amendment
54%
$8,534 Wol.
VAT federal decree
$1,294 Wol.
70%
Fireworks restriction initiative
$5,589 Wol.
33%
Marriage taxation initiative
$1,330 Wol.
16%
War Material amendment
$320 Wol.
54%
As of market creation, four referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on November 29, 2026:
- Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT
- Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’
- Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’
- Issue 4: Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.
The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.Switzerland’s November 29, 2026, ballot features four federal measures: a mandatory referendum on raising VAT to fund the AVS old-age pension system, a popular initiative restricting fireworks, a Centre Party initiative ending the federal tax disadvantage for married couples, and an amendment to the War Material Act easing arms export restrictions to certain partners. Trader consensus has settled on the War Material amendment as the leading outcome at roughly 62-77% implied probability, reflecting sustained focus on neutrality debates and security policy amid broader European tensions. The VAT decree follows closely at 59-65%, while the fireworks and marriage taxation initiatives trail at around 21-24%. No major new catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days beyond ongoing parliamentary and public discussion of these proposals, leaving momentum tied to established partisan alignments and historical patterns of Swiss direct democracy on fiscal, environmental, and defense issues. The November 29 vote will resolve all four simultaneously.
As of market creation, four referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on November 29, 2026:
- Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT
- Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’
- Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’
- Issue 4: Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.
The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
- Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT
- Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’
- Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’
- Issue 4: Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.
The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 13, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Wolumen
$8,534Data zakończenia
Nov 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 13, 2026, 8:06 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...As of market creation, four referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on November 29, 2026:
- Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT
- Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’
- Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’
- Issue 4: Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.
The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.Switzerland’s November 29, 2026, ballot features four federal measures: a mandatory referendum on raising VAT to fund the AVS old-age pension system, a popular initiative restricting fireworks, a Centre Party initiative ending the federal tax disadvantage for married couples, and an amendment to the War Material Act easing arms export restrictions to certain partners. Trader consensus has settled on the War Material amendment as the leading outcome at roughly 62-77% implied probability, reflecting sustained focus on neutrality debates and security policy amid broader European tensions. The VAT decree follows closely at 59-65%, while the fireworks and marriage taxation initiatives trail at around 21-24%. No major new catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days beyond ongoing parliamentary and public discussion of these proposals, leaving momentum tied to established partisan alignments and historical patterns of Swiss direct democracy on fiscal, environmental, and defense issues. The November 29 vote will resolve all four simultaneously.
As of market creation, four referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on November 29, 2026:
- Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT
- Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’
- Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’
- Issue 4: Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.
The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
- Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT
- Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’
- Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’
- Issue 4: Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.
The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
Wolumen
$8,534Data zakończenia
Nov 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 13, 2026, 8:06 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Switzerland’s November 29, 2026, ballot features four federal measures: a mandatory referendum on raising VAT to fund the AVS old-age pension system, a popular initiative restricting fireworks, a Centre Party initiative ending the federal tax disadvantage for married couples, and an amendment to the War Material Act easing arms export restrictions to certain partners. Trader consensus has settled on the War Material amendment as the leading outcome at roughly 62-77% implied probability, reflecting sustained focus on neutrality debates and security policy amid broader European tensions. The VAT decree follows closely at 59-65%, while the fireworks and marriage taxation initiatives trail at around 21-24%. No major new catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days beyond ongoing parliamentary and public discussion of these proposals, leaving momentum tied to established partisan alignments and historical patterns of Swiss direct democracy on fiscal, environmental, and defense issues. The November 29 vote will resolve all four simultaneously.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
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