Morena holds a commanding position in Oaxaca's state politics, currently controlling over two-thirds of seats in the 42-member Congress alongside allies PVEM and PT for roughly 81% combined representation. This legislative dominance, reinforced by recent defections that expanded its caucus and swift approvals of key measures such as Guardia Nacional reforms, underpins the 86.5% implied probability traders assign to a Morena victory in the June 2027 election. Opposition parties including PRI, PAN, and MC trail far behind in historical results and early 2027 polling trends for aligned races, with limited pathways to overcome the ruling coalition's structural advantages in a mixed first-past-the-post and proportional system.