Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNext Grok Model (4.7+) released on...?
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on...?
September 17 37.6%
September 15 37.4%
September 12 37.2%
September 16 37.2%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
-
September 10
1%
September 11
1%
September 12
37%
September 13
1%
September 14
36%
September 15
37%
September 16
37%
September 17
38%
September 18
21%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
1%
September 22
3%
September 23
7%
September 24
3%
September 25
1%
September 26
<1%
September 27
<1%
September 28
1%
September 29
1%
September 30
1%
No release by September 30
3%
September 17 37.6%
September 15 37.4%
September 12 37.2%
September 16 37.2%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
$166 Wol.
-
September 10
$202 Wol.
1%
September 11
$205 Wol.
1%
September 12
$550 Wol.
37%
September 13
$322 Wol.
1%
September 14
$205 Wol.
36%
September 15
$257 Wol.
37%
September 16
$215 Wol.
37%
September 17
$215 Wol.
38%
September 18
$411 Wol.
21%
September 19
$530 Wol.
1%
September 20
$505 Wol.
1%
September 21
$505 Wol.
1%
September 22
$345 Wol.
3%
September 23
$572 Wol.
7%
September 24
$345 Wol.
3%
September 25
$505 Wol.
1%
September 26
$505 Wol.
<1%
September 27
$505 Wol.
<1%
September 28
$379 Wol.
1%
September 29
$379 Wol.
1%
September 30
$505 Wol.
1%
No release by September 30
$345 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Wolumen
$8,674Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$8,674Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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