The extreme rarity of four-home-run games in MLB history, with just 21 instances across more than a century and none recorded during the entire 2026 regular season, underpins trader consensus favoring a "No" outcome at 96% implied probability. Max single-game home runs this year have topped out at three, and with the regular season concluded, only a small number of early postseason contests remain before the October 12 resolution. Factors reinforcing this positioning include consistent pitching depth across contenders and the absence of any batter approaching the required power outburst in recent form. Still, an unexpected slugging display by a top power hitter in favorable conditions during the wild-card or division series could shift probabilities.