California's new congressional map, enacted via Proposition 50 in November 2025, forms the primary driver behind trader expectations for Democratic House seats in the 2026 midterms. The lines target a net gain of three to five seats from the current 43-9 Democratic advantage, with primaries in June clarifying competitive matchups in redrawn districts such as the 6th, 22nd, and 48th. Recent statewide polling shows Democratic candidates leading Republican opponents by roughly 26 points among likely voters, consistent with midterm patterns favoring the opposition party. These factors position 47 and 48 seats as the leading outcomes at 21.5% and 67%, reflecting projected flips in targeted Republican-held areas alongside the limited risk of shortfalls in a handful of competitive districts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano48 67%
47 22%
46 3.7%
49+ 1.8%
$22,204 Wol.
$22,204 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
<43
<1%
43
<1%
44
1%
45
1%
46
4%
47
22%
48
67%
49+
2%
48 67%
47 22%
46 3.7%
49+ 1.8%
$22,204 Wol.
$22,204 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
<43
$576 Wol.
<1%
43
$667 Wol.
<1%
44
$811 Wol.
1%
45
$883 Wol.
1%
46
$1,336 Wol.
4%
47
$5,485 Wol.
22%
48
$11,606 Wol.
67%
49+
$841 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.California's new congressional map, enacted via Proposition 50 in November 2025, forms the primary driver behind trader expectations for Democratic House seats in the 2026 midterms. The lines target a net gain of three to five seats from the current 43-9 Democratic advantage, with primaries in June clarifying competitive matchups in redrawn districts such as the 6th, 22nd, and 48th. Recent statewide polling shows Democratic candidates leading Republican opponents by roughly 26 points among likely voters, consistent with midterm patterns favoring the opposition party. These factors position 47 and 48 seats as the leading outcomes at 21.5% and 67%, reflecting projected flips in targeted Republican-held areas alongside the limited risk of shortfalls in a handful of competitive districts.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Wolumen
$22,204Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.California's new congressional map, enacted via Proposition 50 in November 2025, forms the primary driver behind trader expectations for Democratic House seats in the 2026 midterms. The lines target a net gain of three to five seats from the current 43-9 Democratic advantage, with primaries in June clarifying competitive matchups in redrawn districts such as the 6th, 22nd, and 48th. Recent statewide polling shows Democratic candidates leading Republican opponents by roughly 26 points among likely voters, consistent with midterm patterns favoring the opposition party. These factors position 47 and 48 seats as the leading outcomes at 21.5% and 67%, reflecting projected flips in targeted Republican-held areas alongside the limited risk of shortfalls in a handful of competitive districts.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$22,204Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...California's new congressional map, enacted via Proposition 50 in November 2025, forms the primary driver behind trader expectations for Democratic House seats in the 2026 midterms. The lines target a net gain of three to five seats from the current 43-9 Democratic advantage, with primaries in June clarifying competitive matchups in redrawn districts such as the 6th, 22nd, and 48th. Recent statewide polling shows Democratic candidates leading Republican opponents by roughly 26 points among likely voters, consistent with midterm patterns favoring the opposition party. These factors position 47 and 48 seats as the leading outcomes at 21.5% and 67%, reflecting projected flips in targeted Republican-held areas alongside the limited risk of shortfalls in a handful of competitive districts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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