Russian forces have conducted only isolated infiltration attempts and strikes near Malokaterynivka, a settlement northwest of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, without securing confirmed territorial control as of September 2026. Trader-implied probabilities remain low primarily because Russian command has concentrated mechanized units, reinforcements, and drone assets on main efforts in Donetsk Oblast around Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk. Ukrainian defenders in the Orikhiv sector have sustained positions through artillery, FPV drone strikes, and targeted attacks on Russian UAV control posts and logistics in occupied Zaporizhzhia. Recent heavy Russian shelling and airstrikes on the region, including Malokaterynivka itself, have not translated into ground advances. Resource allocation away from the southern axis and Ukrainian counteractions elsewhere limit near-term breakthrough prospects through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$287,816 Vol.
December 31
5%
$287,816 Vol.
December 31
5%
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Malokaterynivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: May 27, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Territory will be considered captured if any part of Malokaterynivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have conducted only isolated infiltration attempts and strikes near Malokaterynivka, a settlement northwest of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, without securing confirmed territorial control as of September 2026. Trader-implied probabilities remain low primarily because Russian command has concentrated mechanized units, reinforcements, and drone assets on main efforts in Donetsk Oblast around Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk. Ukrainian defenders in the Orikhiv sector have sustained positions through artillery, FPV drone strikes, and targeted attacks on Russian UAV control posts and logistics in occupied Zaporizhzhia. Recent heavy Russian shelling and airstrikes on the region, including Malokaterynivka itself, have not translated into ground advances. Resource allocation away from the southern axis and Ukrainian counteractions elsewhere limit near-term breakthrough prospects through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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