**Mitch McConnell’s term ends January 3, 2027, after he announced in February 2025 that he would not seek an eighth Senate term.** As of early September 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket places an 84.5% implied probability that he will not resign early, consistent with low single-digit odds on other platforms for resignation before the November 2026 midterms or term’s end. McConnell has been absent from the Senate since mid-June 2026 following a fall that caused brief unconsciousness and a subsequent pneumonia diagnosis. His office released statements confirming he was recovering at a rehabilitation facility and, later in August, at home under an intensive physical-therapy regimen while continuing to engage staff and colleagues on Senate business. Kentucky Republican Rep. James Comer reported in early September that McConnell’s staff expected his return when the Senate reconvened on September 14. Public pressure has included calls from Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear for McConnell to address his capacity to serve or resign, and commentary from some conservative voices urging him to step aside if he cannot return promptly. However, McConnell has repeatedly signaled his intent to complete his term, citing unfinished Senate work, and no resignation has occurred. With only a few months remaining and Kentucky law requiring a special election for any vacancy, the combination of his stated commitment, ongoing recovery updates, and short remaining tenure has anchored the strong market expectation that he will serve out the term.