Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly floated the possibility of referendums on institutional reforms, economic policy, or end-of-life issues since 2024 but has consistently pursued parliamentary or European Union legislative routes instead. With his presidency concluding in 2027 and municipal elections scheduled for March 2026, the pre-electoral calendar leaves limited window for organizing a national vote by year-end. Recent priorities, including revised social media restrictions for minors after the Constitutional Council struck down prior legislation, are advancing through EU notification and domestic bills rather than direct consultation. Traders assign a 97.2% probability to no referendum occurring because these patterns and timing constraints show little momentum for action. Unexpected developments such as a major legislative impasse or acute political crisis could still prompt a shift before December 31.