**No at 73% reflects a market that has already seen multiple $150 million-plus results in 2025–2026 but views another one before year-end as less certain amid lumpy supply.** The standout 2025 Klimt *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* ($236.4 million) and May 2026 Pollock *Number 7A* ($181.2 million) came from major estate dispersals (Lauder, Newhouse, Gund), driving the recent rebound in trophy Modern and Postwar works. With those collections largely cleared and fewer comparable single-owner blocks confirmed for the fall New York or London seasons, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of pushing another lot over the threshold by December 31. Upcoming evening sales and any late private-treaty reports remain the key swing factors, yet the compressed timeline and historical reliance on exceptional provenance keep the “No” side favored.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アートワークは12月31日までに1億5000万$で販売されますか？
アートワークは12月31日までに1億5000万$で販売されますか？
はい
40% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
40% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**No at 73% reflects a market that has already seen multiple $150 million-plus results in 2025–2026 but views another one before year-end as less certain amid lumpy supply.**
The standout 2025 Klimt *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* ($236.4 million) and May 2026 Pollock *Number 7A* ($181.2 million) came from major estate dispersals (Lauder, Newhouse, Gund), driving the recent rebound in trophy Modern and Postwar works. With those collections largely cleared and fewer comparable single-owner blocks confirmed for the fall New York or London seasons, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of pushing another lot over the threshold by December 31. Upcoming evening sales and any late private-treaty reports remain the key swing factors, yet the compressed timeline and historical reliance on exceptional provenance keep the “No” side favored.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
音量
$1,616終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**No at 73% reflects a market that has already seen multiple $150 million-plus results in 2025–2026 but views another one before year-end as less certain amid lumpy supply.**
The standout 2025 Klimt *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* ($236.4 million) and May 2026 Pollock *Number 7A* ($181.2 million) came from major estate dispersals (Lauder, Newhouse, Gund), driving the recent rebound in trophy Modern and Postwar works. With those collections largely cleared and fewer comparable single-owner blocks confirmed for the fall New York or London seasons, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of pushing another lot over the threshold by December 31. Upcoming evening sales and any late private-treaty reports remain the key swing factors, yet the compressed timeline and historical reliance on exceptional provenance keep the “No” side favored.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$1,616終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**No at 73% reflects a market that has already seen multiple $150 million-plus results in 2025–2026 but views another one before year-end as less certain amid lumpy supply.** The standout 2025 Klimt *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* ($236.4 million) and May 2026 Pollock *Number 7A* ($181.2 million) came from major estate dispersals (Lauder, Newhouse, Gund), driving the recent rebound in trophy Modern and Postwar works. With those collections largely cleared and fewer comparable single-owner blocks confirmed for the fall New York or London seasons, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of pushing another lot over the threshold by December 31. Upcoming evening sales and any late private-treaty reports remain the key swing factors, yet the compressed timeline and historical reliance on exceptional provenance keep the “No” side favored.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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