The solidly Republican lean of Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat following incumbent Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, underpins trader consensus favoring Republican nominee Jon Bonck at 92.5 percent. Bonck secured the nomination after winning a May 2026 runoff with endorsements from President Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, and House leadership, plus substantial fundraising exceeding $1.5 million. Democrat Melissa McDonough advanced from her March primary but trails significantly in resources and faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters. The November 3 general election timeline leaves room for shifts from unforeseen events such as candidate health issues or major national developments, though historical patterns in comparable Texas districts suggest limited volatility at this stage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$28,006 Vol.
$28,006 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジョン・ボンク (共和党)
93%
メリッサ・マクドナウ（民主党）
4%
$28,006 Vol.
$28,006 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジョン・ボンク (共和党)
$17,956 Vol.
93%
メリッサ・マクドナウ（民主党）
$10,050 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Republican lean of Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat following incumbent Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, underpins trader consensus favoring Republican nominee Jon Bonck at 92.5 percent. Bonck secured the nomination after winning a May 2026 runoff with endorsements from President Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, and House leadership, plus substantial fundraising exceeding $1.5 million. Democrat Melissa McDonough advanced from her March primary but trails significantly in resources and faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters. The November 3 general election timeline leaves room for shifts from unforeseen events such as candidate health issues or major national developments, though historical patterns in comparable Texas districts suggest limited volatility at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$28,006終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Republican lean of Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat following incumbent Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, underpins trader consensus favoring Republican nominee Jon Bonck at 92.5 percent. Bonck secured the nomination after winning a May 2026 runoff with endorsements from President Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, and House leadership, plus substantial fundraising exceeding $1.5 million. Democrat Melissa McDonough advanced from her March primary but trails significantly in resources and faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters. The November 3 general election timeline leaves room for shifts from unforeseen events such as candidate health issues or major national developments, though historical patterns in comparable Texas districts suggest limited volatility at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$28,006終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...The solidly Republican lean of Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat following incumbent Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, underpins trader consensus favoring Republican nominee Jon Bonck at 92.5 percent. Bonck secured the nomination after winning a May 2026 runoff with endorsements from President Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, and House leadership, plus substantial fundraising exceeding $1.5 million. Democrat Melissa McDonough advanced from her March primary but trails significantly in resources and faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters. The November 3 general election timeline leaves room for shifts from unforeseen events such as candidate health issues or major national developments, though historical patterns in comparable Texas districts suggest limited volatility at this stage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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