**Trever Nehls (R) holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the TX-22 general election on November 3, 2026, driven by the district’s strong Republican lean and his dominant primary performance.** The seat became open after incumbent Troy Nehls retired; his twin brother Trever secured the GOP nomination with 75.7% of the primary vote, backed by a Trump endorsement and a profile emphasizing border security, domestic energy production, law enforcement support, and infrastructure priorities such as the SH-99 corridor. The district, covering suburban areas across Fort Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties, delivered roughly 60% support for Trump in 2024 and has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. Marquette Greene-Scott won the Democratic primary with 54.6% but faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. While a late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could theoretically narrow the margin, the combination of partisan fundamentals, candidate continuity within the Nehls brand, and limited Democratic resources makes a competitive outcome unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$26,537 Vol.
$26,537 Vol.
2026/11/02
トレバー・ネルス（共和党）
93%
マーケット・グリーン＝スコット（民主党）
8%
$26,537 Vol.
$26,537 Vol.
2026/11/02
トレバー・ネルス（共和党）
$16,948 Vol.
93%
マーケット・グリーン＝スコット（民主党）
$9,589 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Trever Nehls (R) holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the TX-22 general election on November 3, 2026, driven by the district’s strong Republican lean and his dominant primary performance.** The seat became open after incumbent Troy Nehls retired; his twin brother Trever secured the GOP nomination with 75.7% of the primary vote, backed by a Trump endorsement and a profile emphasizing border security, domestic energy production, law enforcement support, and infrastructure priorities such as the SH-99 corridor. The district, covering suburban areas across Fort Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties, delivered roughly 60% support for Trump in 2024 and has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. Marquette Greene-Scott won the Democratic primary with 54.6% but faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters.
While a late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could theoretically narrow the margin, the combination of partisan fundamentals, candidate continuity within the Nehls brand, and limited Democratic resources makes a competitive outcome unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$26,537終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Trever Nehls (R) holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the TX-22 general election on November 3, 2026, driven by the district’s strong Republican lean and his dominant primary performance.** The seat became open after incumbent Troy Nehls retired; his twin brother Trever secured the GOP nomination with 75.7% of the primary vote, backed by a Trump endorsement and a profile emphasizing border security, domestic energy production, law enforcement support, and infrastructure priorities such as the SH-99 corridor. The district, covering suburban areas across Fort Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties, delivered roughly 60% support for Trump in 2024 and has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. Marquette Greene-Scott won the Democratic primary with 54.6% but faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters.
While a late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could theoretically narrow the margin, the combination of partisan fundamentals, candidate continuity within the Nehls brand, and limited Democratic resources makes a competitive outcome unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$26,537終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...**Trever Nehls (R) holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the TX-22 general election on November 3, 2026, driven by the district’s strong Republican lean and his dominant primary performance.** The seat became open after incumbent Troy Nehls retired; his twin brother Trever secured the GOP nomination with 75.7% of the primary vote, backed by a Trump endorsement and a profile emphasizing border security, domestic energy production, law enforcement support, and infrastructure priorities such as the SH-99 corridor. The district, covering suburban areas across Fort Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties, delivered roughly 60% support for Trump in 2024 and has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. Marquette Greene-Scott won the Democratic primary with 54.6% but faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. While a late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could theoretically narrow the margin, the combination of partisan fundamentals, candidate continuity within the Nehls brand, and limited Democratic resources makes a competitive outcome unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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