**No Supreme Court vacancy is expected in 2026, with traders assigning an 85% probability to that outcome.** The two oldest justices—Clarence Thomas (78) and Samuel Alito (76)—have shown no signs of stepping down. In August 2026, Alito explicitly stated he plans to serve another term, directly addressing and dismissing retirement speculation. The remaining seven justices range from Chief Justice John Roberts (71) to the youngest appointees in their mid-50s, with no reported health concerns or public indications of departure. Supreme Court vacancies are infrequent in any given year, historically occurring at a base rate of roughly 15–20% from retirements or deaths. No retirements have been announced, and justices with lifetime tenure rarely exit without advance signals. Political timing considerations, such as Senate control ahead of midterms, have not produced actionable developments. Absent a sudden health event or unforeseen announcement, the current composition is expected to hold through the end of the year.