Resilient corporate earnings growth, fueled by AI-driven tech sector gains, underpins trader sentiment for the S&P 500 closing above 8,000 at end-2026, with that outcome holding a 35.5% market-implied probability. Recent FOMC projections and September data show solid GDP expansion near 2.3% annualized alongside core PCE inflation around 3.4%, prompting the Fed to hold or adjust policy rates higher for longer amid rising Treasury yields. This creates competitive dynamics, as the 29% probability on the 7,500–8,000 band reflects valuation pressure from elevated yields capping multiples, while lower brackets capture risks from any growth slowdown. Upcoming Q3 earnings and labor market releases will likely refine these aggregated trader views backed by real capital.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8,000ドル超 29%
7,500～8,000ドル 19%
7,000～7,500ドル 17%
6,500〜7,000ドル 10%
$44,814 Vol.
$44,814 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
8%
6,000～6,500ドル
7%
6,500〜7,000ドル
10%
7,000～7,500ドル
21%
7,500～8,000ドル
29%
8,000ドル超
36%
8,000ドル超 29%
7,500～8,000ドル 19%
7,000～7,500ドル 17%
6,500〜7,000ドル 10%
$44,814 Vol.
$44,814 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
$23,712 Vol.
8%
6,000～6,500ドル
$2,380 Vol.
7%
6,500〜7,000ドル
$4,657 Vol.
10%
7,000～7,500ドル
$2,769 Vol.
21%
7,500～8,000ドル
$4,333 Vol.
29%
8,000ドル超
$6,963 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Resilient corporate earnings growth, fueled by AI-driven tech sector gains, underpins trader sentiment for the S&P 500 closing above 8,000 at end-2026, with that outcome holding a 35.5% market-implied probability. Recent FOMC projections and September data show solid GDP expansion near 2.3% annualized alongside core PCE inflation around 3.4%, prompting the Fed to hold or adjust policy rates higher for longer amid rising Treasury yields. This creates competitive dynamics, as the 29% probability on the 7,500–8,000 band reflects valuation pressure from elevated yields capping multiples, while lower brackets capture risks from any growth slowdown. Upcoming Q3 earnings and labor market releases will likely refine these aggregated trader views backed by real capital.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
音量
$44,814終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Resilient corporate earnings growth, fueled by AI-driven tech sector gains, underpins trader sentiment for the S&P 500 closing above 8,000 at end-2026, with that outcome holding a 35.5% market-implied probability. Recent FOMC projections and September data show solid GDP expansion near 2.3% annualized alongside core PCE inflation around 3.4%, prompting the Fed to hold or adjust policy rates higher for longer amid rising Treasury yields. This creates competitive dynamics, as the 29% probability on the 7,500–8,000 band reflects valuation pressure from elevated yields capping multiples, while lower brackets capture risks from any growth slowdown. Upcoming Q3 earnings and labor market releases will likely refine these aggregated trader views backed by real capital.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$44,814終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResilient corporate earnings growth, fueled by AI-driven tech sector gains, underpins trader sentiment for the S&P 500 closing above 8,000 at end-2026, with that outcome holding a 35.5% market-implied probability. Recent FOMC projections and September data show solid GDP expansion near 2.3% annualized alongside core PCE inflation around 3.4%, prompting the Fed to hold or adjust policy rates higher for longer amid rising Treasury yields. This creates competitive dynamics, as the 29% probability on the 7,500–8,000 band reflects valuation pressure from elevated yields capping multiples, while lower brackets capture risks from any growth slowdown. Upcoming Q3 earnings and labor market releases will likely refine these aggregated trader views backed by real capital.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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