NVIDIA shares traded near $235 on October 2 after a $150 billion buyback authorization announced September 28 lifted total repurchase capacity to $235 billion through fiscal 2028, the largest single increase in U.S. corporate history. This capital return, funded by data-center revenue that surged 117% year-over-year to $89 billion in the fiscal second quarter, supported the stock’s advance from the prior week’s close near $225 while forward P/E compressed to roughly 25 times amid 106% top-line growth. Analyst upgrades, including Morgan Stanley restoring top-pick status, reinforced trader focus on sustained AI demand and margin expansion, though rising Treasury yields and broader tech rotation introduced volatility. The closely matched 50.5% and 50.0% probabilities on the $230–235 and $235–240 bins reflect this balance between buyback-driven momentum and macroeconomic sensitivity ahead of the week’s resolution.