Incumbent Tom Emmer's commanding position in the Minnesota 6th congressional district stems from his long tenure since 2015, role as House Majority Whip, and decisive 80.9% victory in the August 2026 Republican primary. The district's consistent Republican lean, shown by double-digit Trump margins in recent cycles, underpins the 91.5% implied probability. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, with a Chapin-commissioned August poll showing Emmer ahead by 10 points. Limited Democratic resources and no major recent polling shifts or national developments favoring a flip reinforce trader consensus. Late-breaking events such as a significant scandal, health issue for Emmer, or unexpected turnout surge could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$42,538 Vol.
$42,538 Vol.
2026/11/02
トム・エマー（共和党）
92%
ダグ・チャピン（民主党）
10%
$42,538 Vol.
$42,538 Vol.
2026/11/02
トム・エマー（共和党）
$23,800 Vol.
92%
ダグ・チャピン（民主党）
$18,738 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Tom Emmer's commanding position in the Minnesota 6th congressional district stems from his long tenure since 2015, role as House Majority Whip, and decisive 80.9% victory in the August 2026 Republican primary. The district's consistent Republican lean, shown by double-digit Trump margins in recent cycles, underpins the 91.5% implied probability. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, with a Chapin-commissioned August poll showing Emmer ahead by 10 points. Limited Democratic resources and no major recent polling shifts or national developments favoring a flip reinforce trader consensus. Late-breaking events such as a significant scandal, health issue for Emmer, or unexpected turnout surge could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$42,538終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Tom Emmer's commanding position in the Minnesota 6th congressional district stems from his long tenure since 2015, role as House Majority Whip, and decisive 80.9% victory in the August 2026 Republican primary. The district's consistent Republican lean, shown by double-digit Trump margins in recent cycles, underpins the 91.5% implied probability. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, with a Chapin-commissioned August poll showing Emmer ahead by 10 points. Limited Democratic resources and no major recent polling shifts or national developments favoring a flip reinforce trader consensus. Late-breaking events such as a significant scandal, health issue for Emmer, or unexpected turnout surge could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$42,538終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Tom Emmer's commanding position in the Minnesota 6th congressional district stems from his long tenure since 2015, role as House Majority Whip, and decisive 80.9% victory in the August 2026 Republican primary. The district's consistent Republican lean, shown by double-digit Trump margins in recent cycles, underpins the 91.5% implied probability. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, with a Chapin-commissioned August poll showing Emmer ahead by 10 points. Limited Democratic resources and no major recent polling shifts or national developments favoring a flip reinforce trader consensus. Late-breaking events such as a significant scandal, health issue for Emmer, or unexpected turnout surge could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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