Recent numerical weather model consensus, including GFS and DWD output, supports a maximum temperature of 24–25°C in Munich on September 29 under mostly clear skies and light easterly winds. This setup favors daytime warming above the seasonal average high of roughly 17.5°C, with minimal cloud cover and negligible precipitation risk limiting cooling. Current trader-implied probabilities align closely with this guidance, concentrating on the 24°C and 25°C outcomes while assigning lower weight to 23°C or 26°C as model spreads remain modest. Updated runs ahead of the observation window will provide the next key data points for refining these market-implied odds.