Consensus meteorological forecasts from models including GFS project a daytime high of 22°C in Munich on October 4 under partly cloudy skies, light northeast winds, and minimal precipitation risk, exceeding the 1991–2020 average high of 16.7°C. This strong model consensus and current afternoon observations near 20–21°C underpin the market-implied odds exceeding 99% for 22°C. Official resolution will hinge on measurements from stations such as those operated by the German Weather Service. Only a sharp, unforecasted temperature drop or station-specific anomaly could alter the outcome at this late stage.